Note:
This is an update, not a rundown, so only races where changes have occurred are listed. I am not forgetting any races, it's just that the vast majority are not summarized here because no changes have occurred with them. A few are listed, and all are ranked at the end.
More below the jump...
Another crushing week for GOP prospects in the Senate is shaping up. There has been little change since my Friday update, but nevertheless at least a little.
Nebraska
Ben Nelson - D
In news that is frustrating the hell out of Cornhusker Republicans, Rep. Tom Osborne, the most popular Republican in the state, is running for governor, not Senate, in 2006. However, Don Stenberg, who lost a close race to Nelson in 2000, wants a rematch. Stenberg is a very conservative, very mean guy, and Nelson is perceived as a gentle moderate.
Vermont
Open - I
Gov. Jim Douglas, the most popular Republican in Vermont, is...NOT RUNNING. That was a smart move on his part, since he probably would have lost, but it makes GOP prospects in very liberal Vermont nearly impossible. Rep. Bernie Sanders (I), a self-described socialist, is running, and is enormously popular. He should crush whoever runs against him, Democrat or Republican. Now don't say "an Indie isn't as good as a Dem". In Bernie's case, he is. In the House, he has consistently sided with the Dems (in fact, he's among the most lefty Congressmen), and will surely do so in the Senate. If you thought Ted Kennedy was good, watch out.
Florida
Bill Nelson - D
Violins, anybody? Still the poor GOP has nobody to run against one of the (supposedly) most vulnerable incumbents of 2006. Rep. Katherine Harris wants it, but Rove is trying to keep her from it for fear that she would drive angry Dems in South Florida to the polls. Every other prominent Repig wants to be Governor when Jeb retires. So, who does that leave? Nobody yet. I expect that the attention will go to the governor's mansion, leaving Nelson safer than predicted.
New Jersey
Open - D
Guess who's running? Rep. Frank Pallone, great guy. He's the first of several ambitious Dem Congressmen to declare his intentions, but most expect announcements from Bob Menendez and Rob Andrews too. All represent safe Dem districts, so don't worry about that. It is a sad thing to lose Corzine, but I really think there is little need for worry in the Garden State. Remember, Corzine's endorsement will hold weight, as he is the most popular politician in the state, so whomever he selects to replace him will probably win a full term come '06.
Maryland
Open - D
Rep. Ben Cardin is in. So we already have a looming primary between he and Kweisi Mfume. Should be interesting. Anyhow, Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) is being pressured to run - the GOP seems to think he is their Obama. But if you saw Bill Maher on Friday, I think we can all agree that isn't happening. Steele's name recognition is very high because the Maryland Republicans have shoved him down everybody's throats, but once the race gets on, IF he runs, he'll lose by a fairly big margin. Oh, and then there's that other problem for the Old Line GOPers - Gov. Ehrlich, who faces an uphill reelection battle. Like Florida, a lot of $ will be spent on defense in Annapolis, leaving less $ spent on offense.
Montana
Conrad Burns - R
State Auditor John Morrison (D) is running, and Senate Majority Leader Jon Tester is seriously considering as well. Burns is already groaning like an underdog - strange for a three-term incumbent. Anyhow, if it's done right, and if the momentum keeps for Montana Dems, he could go down badly.
It has been a bad month for Republicans all around - from Social Security to the nuclear option to Terri Schiavo to Bush's unpopularity to Iraq to a weak NRSC chair - Liddy Dole, who hasn't yet recruited anyone she wanted. But don't get too comfy yet - we did that in 1994.
Anyhow, the rankings (I'm going to be harder on our side this time just to avoid complacency):
Toss-Up: Minnesota, Rhode Island
Lean Dem: Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania
Likely Dem: Maryland, New Jersey, North Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin
Solid Dem: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Mexico, New York, West Virginia (as long as Byrd runs that is)
Lean GOP: Montana, Tennessee
Likely GOP: Arizona, Missouri, Virginia (as long as Mark Warner doesn't run)
Solid GOP: Indiana, Maine (as long as Snowe doesn't retire), Mississippi, Nevada, Ohio, Texas, Utah, Wyoming
Solid Indie: Vermont