Crossposted at
The Next Agenda
Christie Blatchford had an article in the Globe & Mail the other day (July 4), about the state of affiars in Afghanistan.
The article appeared on A1 and is also available behind the
subscripton wall, which offers a 14 day free trial. (Because of this I have quoted rather more extensively, than I would otherwise.)
She interviewed Canada's former Ambassador to the country, Chris Alexander. He's now the deputy special representative (political) for Kofi Annan.
Alexander is extremely concerned about the situation and the rise in violence and frequency of attacks.
The major problem, according to Alexander, is that the Taliban was not defeated back in 2001. They were allowed the chance to regroup in Pakistan and now are able to launch attacks into the Afghanistan and then retreat to safety. And it is getting worse, the current rate of casualties is 3 times what it was last year.
..."[B]ecause no one arrested them, they were not challenged in that new environment [of Pakistan], and they put themselves back together and are much stronger three years later than they were in 2002, and therefore the punch they pack across the border in engineering this insurgency, in training bombers, launching suicide bombers into the Afghanistan environment for the first time in recorded history, is much larger than it was in 2003. So that's the No. 1 challenge."
"And everyone's who's fighting this out, and other members of NATO, are having franker and franker discussions, I think, across the board, and that includes the UN. We've been to see [Pakistan's President Perez] Musharraf, and he's agreed with us that Talibanization is a threat to his country, as well as to Afghanistan, and he is, in a sense, fighting the Taliban.
"The trick will be to have them crack down on the Taliban who are fighting in Afghanistan, mostly from Quetta...My sense is, Pakistanis, when accused of offering refuge to a good part of the leadership, when they're accused of training camps and so forth, put up a huge hue and cry, deny everything, ask for evidence, accuse Afghans of not having their own house in order.
"Well", he said flatly, "the evidence is overwhelming, and in fact, we're not even discussing the evidence anymore. We're really discussing what to do and how to do it."
Alexander is pushing for a political solution to make Pakistan round up the Taliban leaders in the country, as the coalition forces fight them militarily, in Afghanistan.
He worries about the increase in violence in the region.
"I don't think we're at the tipping point yet, but we can't be doing this forever, and if the insurgency next year is twice as bad, with twice as many commanders with hardened fighters coming across the border next year as this year, there will be many questions asked, no doubt in my mind."
And don't forget, according to Bush, he's already won the "War on Terror" in Afghanistan, so they want to pull out, leaving other countries to take up the slack. And Harper has been happy to commit our troops to the effort through to 2009.
"And as a result [of the increase in attacks], I think it is safe to say that over the past year, Canadians have been in the eye of the storm, have been bearing the brunt of the worst insecurity Afghanistan has been facing in five years of transition."
So thanks anyway, George and Steve.
Luckily, as it stands, the troops on the ground still feel they can do some good.
...[O]ne of the reasons people here are still optimistic here [is] because there has been a country that would step into the role after the U.S. and do it as professionally as Canadians have done..."
But the question hanging over this is whether the will and the ability to fight and or control the Taliban will last, if it's going to take years. My impression, from this article, is that if it does, Alexander considers the prognosis bleak.
With all the sabre rattling directed at Iran and the tiger poking by North Korea, will the world's attention and resources be redirected?
Will Pakistan's Musharraf be able to hang on?