Given the recall and some new polling, it is time to re-think the must-wins for the Democrats.
I have seperated these into four categories: MUST-WIN, PICK ONE FROM THIS LIST TO LOSE, PICK ONE TO WIN, and FUGETTABOUTIT
MUST-WIN
1. California
The W and Ahnuhld thing scares me. If at election time our nominee is even close to losing this state, we have to put Bill Richardson (for the hispanic vote) or Diane Feinstein on the ticket.
2. Pennsylvania
How popular is Ridge here? I saw a Peter Hart focus group in PA on C-SPAN and it seemed like there are good opportunities for the Democrats among independents here (Hart said that group went for Gore last time in this state). We can't win without PA.
PICK ONE TO LOSE
- Iowa
- Minnesota
- Wisconsin
- West Virginia
- Arkansas
- New Hampshire
WV and NH + Blue states = 269. Hence the pick one to win states coming up next.
We can only lose one of these folks. I am not concerned about #1-3, especially with Dean as the nominee.
PICK ONE TO WIN
1. Arizona
This one is ripe given the poll numbers. Again, Richardson may bring this one in. Clark helps here as well. Surprisingly, I don't think Dean does badly here given his NRA rating and health care credentials for seniors (FLA is the only state with a large senior and hispanic population).
2. Nevada
We only need a couple extra electoral votes to seal this thing. Nevada should be close. Again, Dean and Clark's NRA friendliness helps (I'm against guns, but did I say how tired I am of losing elections over them?)
3. Ohio
This is of course the big one. Its ripe for a D victory and this would seal the election. We need to compete big time here.
4. Colorado
This is a long-shot, unless the Campbell Senate race gets dynamnc and helps turnout. Again, Richardson would help here.
5. Florida
Jeb's gonna steal it for big bro, but as the Beach Boys once said, wouldn't it be nice?
6. Missouri
Maybe a Clark-Gep ticket could pull this off. But I'm from KS (KC area) and MO ain't what it used to be- it is quickly becoming solid red-state territory. (The leg. passed conceal-carry for gosh sakes!)
FUGETTABOUTIT
1. Georgia
Even w/Cleland I don't see it. And Diebold doesn't either.
2. North Carolina
Close but no cigar-producing state.
3. Louisiana
I doubt even Clark can quite pull this one in.
4. Virginia
Nope.
5. Tenn/Kentucky
If Gore couldn't win here what makes us think anyone else can?
6. Indiana
Baygh won't even bring this in, so don't even think about putting that neo-con on the ticket.
I'M NOT WORRIED ABOUT
- Michigan
- New York (Republican fantasies aside)
- Illinois (especially with a Senate race)
- New Mexico (Richardson)
- Oregon (Nader won't have the same vote this time)