Five of the closest races are deep in the heart of the south. All five of these are open seats with the Democratic incumbent retiring. Republicans will likely win at least one out these five elections. The other five Senate seats are in solid Bush states, Oklahoma and Alaska. The final seat is in Illinois where Republican Senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring. This seat is in a solidly Democratic state. This is an almost certain pick-up for Democrats.
Let's take a look a vulnerable Democratic seats:
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North Carolina (D): On September 7, 2003, Democratic Senator and Presidential candidate John Edwards announced he would not run for reelection. After Edwards decision, North Carolina Democrats turned to there failed 2002 Senate nominee to Erskine Bowles to run. He will have to face Republican Congressman Richard Burr. My prediction: GOP leaning
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Toss up
John Kerry as nominee: Strongly leans GOP
South Carolina (D): This summer, Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings announced he would not run for reelection. He has been represented South Carolina in the Senate since 1966. Democrats recruited a strong candidate in Inez Tenenbaum. She was able to survive the GOP sweep in 2002 and be reelected State Superintendent of Education with 59% She will face Republican congressman Jim DeMint
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Toss up.
John Kerry as nominee: Likely Gop
Georgia (D): Democrats in Georgia are in disarray after the upset loss of the Governorship and Max Cleland's Senate seat. When Zell Miller announced that he would not run for reelection Republicans rejoiced. Republicans believe this is the last step before the y gain complete domination of Georgia. Demoralized Democrats were turned down by Andrew Young and this moment have not gotten there first tier, second tier or even third tier candidates to run.
Wes Clark or John Edwards: Likely GOP Pick-Up
John Kerry as Nominee: Solid GOP
Florida (D): Bob Graham is retiring after a failed run for president. Peter Deutch is battling it out with Betty Castor for the Democratic nomination. Former GOP Rep. Bill McCollum is and Mel Martinez are the top GOP candidates. With a Presidential campaign looming and a weak field of Democrats and Republicans this will be a nightmarishly tight election.
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Toss Up
John Kerry as nominee: Leans GOP
Louisiana (D): John Breaux is retiring from the Senate, so he can pursue a lucrative lobbying career. On the Democratic side, Rep. Chris John is the only canidate. On the Republican side, Rep. David Vitter has locked up the nomination.
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Leans Democratic
John Kerry as nominee: Leans Strongly GOP
South Dakota (D): Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle is the only non-appointed senator any tough race. Former Rep. John Thune (R), the GOP's strongest possible candidate, is running against Daschle. In 2002, Thune came 524 votes away from defeating Sen. Tim Johnson. Daschle is vulnerable, because he can easily be painted as another "Washington Liberal." Thune will charge that Sen. Daschle has failed to convince his fellow Democrats to support an ethanol provision in the energy bill. Thune is all aided by the added bonus of being able to run on the same ticket as Bush.
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Leans Democratic
John Kerry as nominee: Leans GOP
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These are GOP seats that are vulnerable
Oklahoma (R): After spending 24 years in the Senate, Republican Senator Don Nickles announced he would retire. This is bad news republicans who will now have to defend a previously safe GOP seat. Democratic Congressman Brad Carson, a Rhodes Scholar and the House's only Cherokee Indian, is running to replace Nickles. Mayor Kirk Humphreys is the GOP candidate. Oklahoma is already looking forward to its first close Senate election in years.
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Toss Up
John Kerry as Nominee: GOP is favored
Alaska (R): In 2002 Frank Murkowski retired from the Senate and ran for governor. He won the gubernatorial election and then promptly appointed his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to his Senate seat. Alaskans were out raged and view this as a form of nepotism. With out any nudging by eager Democrats, Former Governor Tony Knowles jumped into the race this summer. Murkowski may have to face not only Knowles but also vicious primary with angry Republicans. This is another race worth watching.
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Toss up
John Kerry as nominee: GOP Favored
Illinois (R): Embattled GOP Senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring after only one term. The vulnerable Republican Senator probably feared he would lose election. In 2002 Democrats captured the Governor's mansion for the first time since 1976. Illinois is not only a liberal state it is also trending left. Republicans will need either an extremely bloody Democratic primary or Bush to winning in a landslide, if they hope to hold on to this seat.
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Likely Democratic Pickup
John Kerry as nominee: Toss Up