Gore's chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize

In the most recent (daily) "Gore's going to come in and save us at the last minute" diary, many posters yet again insisted that Gore will announce "when" he wins the Nobel Prize.  Everyone here tends to treat this possibility as a done deal.  

First of all, the idea that he's waiting to announce until the Nobel Prize is awarded is kind of offensive.  Are Gore supporters implying that his running for office is dependent on the outcome of the Prize?  What does one have to do with the other?  Is the implication that if he started campaigning now, and then didn't win the Nobel Prize, he'd have to drop out in shame?  How is that leadership?  I just don't get the logic.  

Second of all, there are nearly two hundred Nobel Prize nominees for 2007.  Anyone can be a nominee.  Everyone from Muhammad Ali to Rush Limbaugh is a nominee this year.  For all we know, Markos himself is a nominee.  Nominations are only secret if the nominator doesn't issue a press release.

The list of people who can nominate a candidate runs into the thousands. Any Judge -- anywhere -- can be a nominator.  Like Judge Judy.  Any Senator or Representative (or equivalent) in any country.  Any professor of social science, history, philosophy, law, or theology -- again, anywhere in the world -- can be a nominator.  (Nobel sends out thousands and thousands of invitations to be nominators each year.)

And, there's no official nominations list that can be downloaded.  The Nobel Committee won't confirm nor deny ANYONE has been nominated for FIFTY YEARS after the nomination.  That's why it's fascinating to see previous Nobel nominees include Mussolini, Stalin, and Hitler.

To reiterate:  I could be on the list.  So could you.  Angelina Jolie is probably on it this year.  I personally know at least 20-25 people who are eligible to nominate me (if they were invited.)  Those of you who leave in D.C. probably know hundreds -- even people like the under-under-under-Secretary of Fisheries & Wildlife can be a legal nominator.

Now, suppose I AM on the list.  What are my chances of winning?  I'm guessing pretty small.  How about Gore's chances?  Well, let's look at what they're basing their decision on:

The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.

Personally, I think UN Messenger of Peace Ali's work creating the Children's General Assembly is arguably closer to the stated prize description than Gore's work.  But there are tons of known/suspected nominees like Thich Quang Do, Shih Ming-Teh, Ales Bialatski, and others.  The group that actually makes the determination are five super-secretive and fiercely independent individuals who don't exactly care about our public opinion on the matter, and certainly have no predisposition to picking an American.  

If Gore wins the Prize, we all can be proud.  But it shouldn't have anything to do with his decision to run for President.