Well, what appears to be a 9 point Corzine win is a little more than I expected. I though 5-7. I attribute this to the fact that Forrester's sleazy attack ad at the end may have ended up costing him a couple of percent by depressing moderate Republican turnout. Over all, however, the result reflects how solidly Democratic New Jersey has become. After voting for the Republican in every presidential from 1968 to 1988, the state has vote for the Democrat in every presidential election since, often by huge margins. The Republicans have not elected a U.S. Senator since 1972. Save for two one-points wins, the Republicans have lost gubernatorial elections since 1989 by large margins. The Democrats have gained seats in every legislative election since 1993. So the Democrats should be in great shape for next year's senate race, right? Not necessarily
State Senator Tom Kean, Jr. will, in all likelihood, run for the Republicans. Son of a still popular Governor, Kean needs to be taken seriously. If his name were Tom Kaye, he wouldn't be running. But as we learned with our current president, heredity is often destiny. And he's not as moderate as his father.
Corzine will get to name his replacement, who will take Corzine's seat in January. Assuming he doesn't appoint a caretaker, and I doubt he will, whoever Corzine appoints will have a leg up in a possible primary, and an incumbent's advantage in the general. The problem for the Dems is that according to the party's internal polls, only Acting Governor Dick Codey would beat Kean. And Codey, who is clearly an in-state, not a federal, politician, is not particularly wild about going to Washington. And there's some bruised feelings between Corzine and Codey, so it's not even clear that Corzine would offer him the spot. Congressman Bob Menendez has been mentioned, but there are rumblings about skeletons in his closet, both personal and political. Congressman Rob Andrews is from less populated South Jersey and is considerably to the right of Corzine. Congressman Frank Pallone would appear to the best non-Codey alternative, both in terms of substance and electability, but there's some question whether he is well-known enough to best Kean. A really dark horse is former Senator Bill Bradley, who has been out of the senate for 9 years. But I don't think he longs to go back to Washington.
In short, the senate race next year is not going to be a slam dunk. And it is a race we can't afford to lose.
Finally, the New Jersey polling award goes to the Monmouth University/Gannett Newspaper poll which pegged Corzine's lead at 9 percent. The loser is Farleigh Dickinson University's "Public Mind" poll which only gave Corzine a 4 point lead.