Is Edwards up or down in Iowa?

The polls show Obama rising, Edwards falling, and Hillary holding steady in what is still essentially a three-way tie for first in the First Caucus State.

As Jerome points out, Richardson's 11 percent will have a big role in the outcome if the numbers remain static for the duration of this race. Their second choice could prove determinate. Or, he could do what Kucinich did in 2004 and throw his supporters to another candidate to play kingmaker. (Kucinich threw his to the then-pro war Edwards in order to block Dean).

Over at Iowa Independent, they compiled a list of who they think would win the caucuses based on what they're seeing on the ground:

John Edwards -- Edwards started about a year ago with the best organization in Iowa, and most of the foundation he built here is still in place.  Although concerns persist that his sharpening rhetoric may be alienating a few of his earliest supporters, his solid performance at the Jefferson Jackson dinner, his endorsement from Caucus 4 Priorities (and the potential 10,000 caucus-goers it could bring him), and his ongoing commitment to retail politicking keep him  in the top spot -- for now.

Barack Obama -- Obama's organization was fairly inconsistent over the summer, with some counties getting a lot of attention and others getting barely any.  Still, his campaign's ability to build crowds --  as evidenced by his huge and geographically diverse group of  supporters at the Jefferson Jackson dinner -- are as good a measure of his strength as anything.  And as Clinton continues to receive sharper attacks from Edwards and subtler attacks from Obama himself, the Illinois Senator could move up in the coming weeks -- particularly on news of his United Auto Workers endorsement.  As things stand  now, he would still place second behind Edwards.

Hillary Clinton -- Different sources tell vastly different stories  about the Clinton campaign in Iowa.  Some expect it to flop completely, but others point to poll numbers showing Clinton in the  top spot among Democratic candidates in Iowa.  All that said, her aura  of inevitability has been all but shattered by increased criticism over the past few weeks, and she seems to lack significant second choice support.  And her latest swing through Iowa highlighted her energy policy, something which may not resonate among working class women, which continues to be her key demographic.  Frankly, although the polls show Clinton in first place in Iowa, many of us have been hard pressed to find solid Clinton supporters whose names have not already appeared on a campaign press release.

On the other hand, Big Tent Democrat thinks Edwards is looking more like Gephardt 2004 than a caucus winner.

As for me, I think it's folly to try and predict the caucuses, especially with three strong contenders all looking pretty good and the caucus date within "New Year's Eve hangover" territory. And none look too solid. Edwards is on a slight downward trajectory. Both Hillary and Obama get big support from voters who haven't previously attended a caucus. Obama is depending on the potentially less reliable youth vote. Does anyone know where Richardson voters will go after their guy loses? Old people seem to be breaking for Biden, who will be their second choice?

Any of the top three can win at this point. But of course, in the comments, the candidate partisans will claim their guy is the ONLY guy who can win the general, and the rest are DOOMED to defeat by the Republican boogeyman. Sigh. Well, have at it...