Dem Prez Nomination: Words of Caution

Nothing like being a wet blanket the day before Thanksgiving, but I wanted to offer a few words of caution to all the enthusiastic supporters from around the country from someone who is seeing a similar pattern unravel nationally as did in California just two years ago.

The governor's job approval ratings, as measured by the Field Poll, dropped to 36 percent late last month.

In September of 2005, a year before he would be re-elected by an overwhelming margin, Arnold Schwarzenegger's job approval ratings had fallen to 36 percent, and in November of 2005 he would get thumped at the polls on all his ballot initiatives.

If you need further proof that Schwarzenegger's approval ratings were in the dump, check out this chart.  And this is a year prior to the Democratic national landslide....

I've been involved in politics for a while and saw the glee the Democrats had with two legit challengers vying for Arnold's seat: Treasurer Phil Angelides and Controller Steve Westly.  Both were incredibly competent and had pluses and minuses.

And then they went nuclear on each other.

And to hear them say it, the other guy was responsible, and their primary devolved into a finger-pointing match.  Voters' opinions of the candidates kept flopping all over the place.

Angelides had the Democratic establishment in his corner.  Westly had money.  The two of them beat each other into a pulp.

Just a couple weeks prior to the primary vote it looked like, despite Angelides' allegiance within the Democratic establishment, Westly's polished campaign might eke out a win. Angelides' star was fading as he continued to run an inept campaign, but the core of the Democratic Party in California was behind him... and that's what made the difference in his victory.

I know, I'm involved with several Democratic clubs in San Francisco, and I know how much work Angelides didn't have to do to lock up major endorsements within the establishment.  The feeling was that to support Westly was to support a traitor - he had after all given Schwarzenegger's bond initiative the year before a major boost when he supported it.

And then, after they'd gone nuclear on each other, no surprise that voter turnout was a record low.

While Tuesday's political stakes were high, voter interest in the primary was at a record low, with a Field Poll reporting last week that more than a quarter of the likely Democratic voters still hadn't picked a candidate. Early reports from across the state suggested that the turnout could fall even below the dismal predictions made before the election.

"There doesn't seem to be any energy for anyone," said Kam Kuwata, a consultant for Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

Now, before you tell me that I'm making a poor comparison because this has more shades of the GOP nomination than the Democratic nomination, my point is that I want to offer a note of caution.

The Democratic candidates for President, in their effort to give voters a reason to select any one of them, are drawing distinctions.  So far, I think, they've done little of the truly destructive campaigning that could destroy the Democratic Party's chances from within.  But I worry.

In California 2006, Angelides and Westly didn't just draw distinctions but trashed each other.  By the time the primary was over, all Schwarzenegger had to do was say, "Look, Steve Westly said Phil Angelides' tax increase will be incredibly expensive... if a fellow Democrat had this to say about Angelides, then what does it say about his plan?"  And that's exactly what he did.

So, I offer this note of caution in an election where all the polls so far show the Democrats as being unbeatable.  We are totally beatable, and we need to keep that in mind so that we run a race on the merits.  Otherwise we'll reach June 2008 and find ourselves suddenly ten steps behind the GOP nominee, whether that's Romney, Rudy, Johnny, or Huckabee.