Musical Primaries

Following a decision by the Michigan Supreme Court allowing a January 15 primary for that state, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has set the New Hampshire primary for January 8.

Daily Kos diarist Larry Kestenbaum had some context on the Michigan decision:

The decision was four to three, with the solid bloc of four right-wing Republicans (Young, Markman, Corrigan, and Taylor) outvoting the two Democrats (Kelly and Cavanagh) and one disaffected Republican (Weaver).

Michigan Supreme Court justices are nominated by party conventions, so their party labels are widely known, except on the ballot, where they are listed as "nonpartisan".

Election officials, including the Michigan Association of County Clerks, had urged the Secretary of State not to appeal the original court ruling, given the now very limited time left to prepare for the election.  It will now be essentially impossible for overseas absentees, such as troops in Iraq, to participate in the election via absentee ballot.

In New Hampshire, primary date decisions are made by the secretary of state, in consultation with a law that no "similar contest" can be held within a week before or after the NH primary - what exactly constitutes a similar contest is at the discretion of the SoS.

[UPDATE by DHinMI]

Here’s a little more context on how politically screwed up Michigan’s primary has become.

First, MissLaura highlighted a diary by Larry Kestenbaum.  Kestenbaum is more than a diarist, he’s also the County Clerk in Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor/Ypsilanti).  The Michigan Association of County Clerks opposed the Court’s decision to have the primary on January 15th, arguing that it was already too late to prepare ballots and get them to soldiers and expatriates living overseas.  

There are many political reasons behind support and opposition to the primary.  Republicans wanted a state primary.  Democrats had a quasi-caucus in 2004, and were prepared to do it again.  Republicans were relying on a primary.  There is no official party registration in Michigan, so nothing would keep Democrats from voting in the Republican primary.  With Democrats not competing in a primary at the same time, Republicans were concerned that Democrats might cause mischief, as in 2000 when John McCain crushed George W. Bush, largely because of tens of thousands of Democrats voting for McCain in the Republican primary.  

Republicans may also use the primary as an opportunity to collect signatures to help initiate recall efforts against Democrats (and even a stray Republican or two) who last month helped avert a government shutdown by agreeing to plug a billion-plus shortfall in the state budget by cutting some spending but also raising taxes.  

And within the Democratic fold, in addition to wariness about providing Republicans an organizing opportunity against Democratic legislators, there are rifts between factions supporting the various presidential candidates.  US Senator Carl Levin and DNC committeewoman (and wife of the Congressman) Debbie Dingell have long pushed to move Michigan up to the front of the schedule for the presidential primary.  But this year it grew more complicated because of the DNC’s threats to not seat any of the state’s delegates if Michigan flouted the DNC’s schedule and jumped to the front of the line.

Most of the presidential candidates, including John Edwards and Barack Obama, have declared that they will honor the DNC’s rules and not campaign in Michigan, and had their names officially removed from the ballot.  Hillary Clinton, however, did not remove her name from the Michigan ballot.  Democratic leaders supporting Clinton generally support the January 15th primary.  Those Democrats not supporting Clinton have generally called on Governor Jennifer Granholm to reject the primary—which will cost the cash-strapped state about $10 million—return to the caucus system used in 2004, avoid the risk of not having the state’s Democratic delegates recognized at the national convention, and leave the Republicans to scramble for a legitimate way to select their presidential candidate and make it harder for them to organize recalls against Democratic legislators.  

And what about Democrats who don't support Hillary Clinton (or Chris Dodd or Dennis Kucinich, the other Democrats to not remove his name from the ballot)?  Will they bother to vote?  Will they vote for "other" or whatever designation may exist on the ballot?  Will they vote for Ron Paul or Tom Tancredo on the Republican ballot?  And even if you do support Hillary Clinton, since neither Edwards or Obama will be on the ballot, will even her supporters come out?

In short, the Michigan primary has the potential to be a complete and utter mess.  

[Thanks to Kossack and Michigan Liberal contributor lpackard for help with the update]