New Poll: Republicans might lose Indiana in 2008

Man oh man.

You know that the Republicans have fucked up when you get a poll like this.

Disillusioned with President Bush's handling of the war, the economy and immigration, nearly half of likely voters in Indiana appear poised to buck 40 years of tradition and vote for a Democratic presidential ticket -- if it includes Sen. Evan Bayh, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

 
The poll of 600 Hoosiers -- including 449 who say they will definitely vote in the November 2008 election -- revealed a growing sense of pessimism, with nearly three-quarters saying the nation is headed in the wrong direction and 28 percent approving of George W. Bush's performance as president.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points for all respondents and plus or minus 4.6 percentage points for likely voters. It was conducted by telephone Nov. 13-16.

Some highlights.

In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

• Right direction: 20 percent
• Wrong track: 74 percent
• Not sure: 6 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling . . .
. . . his job as president

• Approve: 28 percent
• Disapprove: 66 percent
• Not sure: 6 percent

. . the economy
• Approve: 25 percent
• Disapprove: 69 percent
• Not sure: 6 percent

. . . the federal budget
• Approve: 17 percent
• Disapprove: 74 percent
• Not sure: 9 percent

As you look toward the November 2008 election for president, do you anticipate you will vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?

• Republican candidate: 32 percent
• Democratic candidate: 37 percent
• It depends: 16 percent
• Not sure: 15 percent

Of course there's a reason why people are unhappy.

A growing number of Hoosiers are trying to raise kids on little income. The U.S. Census shows nearly three quarters of children living in poverty have one or more parent working. Another report shows the percentage of Hoosier workers earning below poverty wage had been dropping, but is once again on the rise.

Rochelle Finzel is with the Indiana Institute for Working Families. The organization notes a number of disturbing trends including a loss of more than 110,000 manufacturing jobs in Indiana so far this decade.

Many of those displaced workers have found new jobs, but there's a catch.

"They're still working, they have found other jobs, but they're just not paying as well. And that seems to be what's driving those lower wages and the lower incomes," said Finzel.

And that's the heart of it.  If you have a candidate that centers their campaign on tackling poverty and inequality then Democrats can win any state, including Indiana.