Now that the Iowa Caucuses are over, the primary season begins, and what a strange beginning it has turned out to be. It’s as if the Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears were headed for the Superbowl — completely unlikely, but Kerry came in first, Edwards came in second, Dean came in third, and Gephardt is quitting today.
Gephardt should quit; he put all of his energy and hopes into Iowa, and he failed miserably. I personally think that he failed for two reasons: he went very negative very early on, and his message was not significantly different from any other candidate. Given his past reputation as a loser, it shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone that he failed. Yes, yes, I know that he’s got a reputation as a man of integrity, blah, blah, blah, but the political mind isn’t so good on long-term memory. Gephardt is an opportunistic chameleon, and I for one am glad for his timely demise. I don’t mind political creatures, and I know people can change their minds, but for Gephardt, it was generally always too easy and too well-timed to seem sincere.
The Iowa results have reshaped this election, I think. I still have my doubts about Kerry — despite his grand win in Iowa, he’s had trouble raising money up until now, and I don’t know if he can raise enough fast enough to be able to have money going into the real state battles (mainly on “Super Tuesday”), and his weaknesses are still there — only now, Edwards’ strong finish coupled with the entry of Clark into the race will siphon support away from him.
But Edwards, well, Edwards has new energy after this. He already had the money, he never really counted on Iowa, I think, and this is just a great start for the man who was nationally barely polling above Kucinich. This gives him legitimacy that he hasn’t had as a viable candidate, and I think it rockets him into the front-runners.
Last August, I said “Go Home, John Edwards.” Shockingly, the man didn’t listen to me, and I for one am very, very glad that he didn’t. His only seeming weaknesses are: seeming too packaged, seeming too young, and the support of trial lawyers. The youth aspect is going to start seeming like an asset fairly soon, I predict, and I hope he starts to become more relaxed on the campaign trail. Shouting slogans is just one aspect of a campaign; you have to sincerely appeal to your audiences, too.
Dean — well, Dean’s had a really bad month. I don’t know if he can pull out of this slump. The nation’s newspapers have seemingly banded together to destroy the man by marketing him as unstable, and he seems only too happy to help them with that. (The Drudge Report, a publication I read fairly religiously though I give it about as much respect as I do when my cat coughs up a hairball, has a particularly juicy audio clip.) Even worse, he’s allowed his message to become about his campaign rather than about what his vision is for America.
And Clark — well, this will soon be Clark’s big opportunity, especially next week. If Clark can’t take New Hampshire, it’s going to be very tough to make the claim that he can take Super Tuesday or the Southern primaries.
If Clark doesn’t take it, and Dean continues his downward slide, I predict an Edwards nomination come the end of March.