The Real Lesson of the 2006 Election

In a nutshell... all closets will be ransacked and opened to the light of day.  Or phrased another way... Boy Scouts & Girl Scouts R Us.

Nowhere is this lesson better underlined than the announcement today that Howard Dean and the DNC have hired Michael Gerke to head up opposition research for the DNC through the 2008 Election.  Gerke was hired by Kerry in 2004 to do oppo research on Dean.  And by all accounts, he did a pretty good job, especially if one looks at the results.  So Dean is, in effect, letting bygones be bygones.  In an effort to do the very best for DNC, Dean is putting aside any personal animus to hire the best.  If oppo research was less important, then perhaps Dean would have had the luxury to indulge in a bit of pique.  But this hiring truly does underline the real political lesson of 2006.

The Macaca Moment

There's little doubt that George Felix Allen would still be Senator of Virginia had there not been a camera present on that infamous campaign stop in Southwestern Virginia.  In other words, he could have uttered the word macaca 15 million times on the campaign trail and as long as no camera was present, he could have gotten away with a he said/she said counterclaim.  The CBS Dan Rather story proves that your evidence has to be solid or have the appearance of being solid before the public truly buys it.  Video is gold in this day and age.  So is there any remaining doubt as to whether putting a college kid on the payroll for a video cam junket is worth it?  Not so much.  That debate appears to be over.

The prescience of the Webb campaign worker, who first announced the brewing scandal on DailyKos within minutes of the moment, bears noting, as well.  To paraphrase, s/he stated... a revelation is coming that sinks all future aspirations of Allen being President and could even endanger his Senate re-election chances.  Bravado?  Perhaps.  Right on target?  Yup.

The Foley-ation of America

Perhaps the best example of this lesson didn't even involve an election or candidate.  It involved the revelation of Mark Foley's online activities with pages during day to day operations of Congress.  By opening Foley's closet to the world to inspect, the Democrats went from being a longshot to win his House seat to having one helluva chance after he resigned.  Call this the Capitol 1: What's in your closet gambit.  It's a huge shortcut to electoral victory.  One doesn't have to be right on the issues.  One doesn't have to win debates.  One doesn't have to raise millions.  One doesn't have to win the GOTV battles.  One merely has to find that one nugget in the opponent's closet which will sink him/her.

I hear you say... Yeah, but opposition research has been around forever!.  True, but with the advent of the  "record all" nature of the internet, campaigns never before have had the tools that they do now.  Could Jack Kennedy or Bill Clinton be elected in today's climate?

Boy Scouts & Girl Scouts

This phenomenon is already having a chilling effect on campaigns.  If you're a front runner, you simply do not take risks.  So far, Obama looks like a Boy Scout.  So he's going to talk like a Boy Scout from now until the election outcome.  No sense giving the opposition an angle via some flippant remark on the campaign trail.  Hillary, the same.  In this case, Hillary has been so entirely vetted, her life an open book, that the only thing the opposition could ever get on her would be if she makes a flub on the campaign trail.  Wanna bet that that happens?  She's a Girl Scout and she will remain a Girl Scout.  Others who aren't front runners will have to take risks.  However, it remains to be seen what Joe Biden was thinking with his recent remark.  If that's taking a warranted risk, perhaps it's safer to play Boy Scout from the back of the pack, too.

As a liberal on moral issues, it's easy to bemoan this recent chain of events.  Are we excluding the election of superior candidates merely because of something that might be in that person's closet?  Well, maybe, but I think of it as a rewriting of the rules.  The era of Rock Star politicians is over.  Gary Hart figued he could get away with having Donna Whatshername sit on his lap while enjoying a boat ride.  He was operating under a different set of rules, as were Jack and Bill.

The thing that seems to drive almost all politicians, without exception, is ambition.  Give that ambitious person a set of rules to play by and they'll more or less play by the rules in their attempt to realize their ultimate ambitions.  So are we really excluding or precluding qualified candidates in this regard?  If a certain politician is so ignorant of the rules of election that they break one of these rules unknowingly, are we really missing out on a "superior" candidate?

Some People Never Learn

The thing about lessons is that some people never learn them.  So that is why oppo research will continue to pay huge dividends.  Some people will forget to keep their closets clean during their campaigns.  Some will believe that Rock Star aura buidling around them, and consequently step over the line.  Some will reveal an imbedded stupidity that simply hadn't been revealed before (hello George Allen & Joe Biden).

It looks like 2008 will be all about what's in the candidates' closets.  It's only if we have a Republican Boy Scout go up against a Democrat Boy/Girl Scout that the election will be about something else... something higher.

So in the end, Howard Dean proves to be the smartest man in politics today, February 1st, 2007.  Tomorrow it might be someone else.

Cross-posted on My Left Wing.