LA-Gov, Sen: The Breaux factor

The conventional wisdom in and out of Louisiana is that Gov. Kathleen Blanco is dead woman walking. The DNC isn't ready to call it quits -- apparently committing $3 million to bring down the top Republican challenger Bobby Jindal's numbers. Indeed, the only way Blanco could win this thing at this point is to make Jindal radioactive.

But there's the X factor complicating matters -- will former Sen. John Breaux enter the race? Breaux has "demi-god" status in Louisiana, and his entry would instantly give Democrats the upper hand in the contest. While his politics are infuriating at the national level, Breaux is a solid party guy at the local level and shares much of the credit for our past two tough victories in the state (Blanco and Landrieu). The GOP thinks it can take the state legislature with Blanco dragging down the Democratic ticket (it's 24D 15R in the Senate, 62D 32R in the House). Breaux at the top would make that increasingly unlikely.

If he runs, Republicans will argue that Breaux doesn't meet residency requirements and sue to keep him off the ballot. The 2007 governor's election would then be just about decided in a courtroom.

To be eligible to run for a statewide elected office, the Louisiana Constitution requires that a person be a “citizen” of the state for “at least the preceding five years.”

Breaux is registered to vote and lists his primary address in Maryland, about 70 miles from Washington, where he works for the lobbying firm of Patton Boggs. Breaux changed his voter registration to Maryland after he retired from the U.S. Senate in 2005, according to documents reviewed by The Associated Press.

Along with the Louisiana Republican Party, another interested observer who'd rather Breaux not run is probably Sen. Mary Landrieu. Landrieu is easily the most endangered Democrat up for reelection in 2008, and one of the plusses going into that race is that the state GOP doesn't have any top-tier challengers to throw at her.

The most popular Republican in the state is easily Bobby Jindal, and if he's hanging the curtains in the State House, he can't challenge her endangered seat. But if Breaux sends him back to the House, the restless Jindal (the House is so beneath him...) will have only one other place to go, and Landrieu will face an even tougher job than she already does.

Race tracker wiki: LA-Gov, LA-Sen