The rumors I was reporting on
Wactivist have been confirmed.
According to a just released
BRC Rocky Mountain Poll, Jim Pederson has cut Jon Kyl's lead in the Arizona Senate race by 22 points.
Kyl: 40% (55%)
Pederson: 33% (26%)
Uncommitted: 27% (19%)
The poll isn't up online yet, but below is an excerpt from their release and I've typed out all the crosstabs:
As requested, here is a link to donate to the campaign!
Arizona voters are more closely divided as regards who they want to represent them in the U.S. Senatre than was true at the turn of the year. As of the second week in May, 40 percent prefer the Republican incumbent Jon Kyl while 33 percent plan to vote for Democrat challenger and political newcomer Jim Pederson. This is a significant shift from January when Senator Kyl was holding 55 percent of the vote to only 26 percent for Pederson. Beginning in April, Pederson ramped up and launced a major medica campaign to put himself before voters with a particular emphasis on his Arizona roots and an independent and non-partisan approach to issues. The result has been dramatic as Pederson has increased his appeal by seven points and simultaneously driven another eight percent into the ranks of undecideds. The net result is an impressive drop of 15 points in the proportion of voters pledged to incumbent Jon Kyl.
The numbers stay strong when the filter is "likely" voters.
Kyl: 45% (60%)
Pederson: 35% (26%)
Here is the full set of demographics etc that are with the poll. A lot of things stand out to me when looking at this, but one is particularly shocking. Pederson is doing BETTER in Maricopa County than in Pima County. I'll leave it up to my friends down in the old pueblo to tell us why in the comments.
Maricopa
Kyl - 39%
Pederson - 33%
Uncommitted - 28%
Pima
Kyl - 44%
Pederson - 31%
Uncommitted - 25%
Rural
Kyl - 41%
Pederson - 37%
Uncommitted - 22%
Republican
Kyl - 78%
Pederson - 10%
Uncommitted - 12%
Democrat
Kyl - 12%
Pederson - 62%
Uncommitted - 26%
Independent
Kyl - 19%
Pederson - 31%
Uncommitted - 50%
Likely Voters
Kyl - 45%
Pederson - 35%
Uncommitted - 20%
Men
Kyl - 43%
Pederson - 32%
Uncommitted - 25%
Women
Kyl - 38%
Pederson - 34%
Uncommitted - 28%
Caucasian
Kyl - 43%
Pederson - 32%
Uncommitted - 25%
Hispanic
Kyl - 33%
Pederson - 30%
Uncommitted - 37%
Other
Kyl - 24%
Pederson - 49%
Uncommitted - 27%
Under $45K
Kyl - 31%
Pederson - 38%
Uncommitted - 31%
$45 to 64.9K
Kyl - 46%
Pederson - 36%
Uncommitted - 18%
$65+K
Kyl - 47%
Pederson - 29%
Uncommitted - 24%
Under 35
Kyl - 38%
Pederson - 28%
Uncommitted - 34%
35 to 54
Kyl - 41%
Pederson - 34%
Uncommitted - 25%
55 +
Kyl - 42%
Pederson - 37%
Uncommitted - 21%
Retirees
Kyl - 40%
Pederson - 38%
Uncommitted - 22%