An interesting article in today's NY Times by Adam Nagourney:
"Rather than dispatching troops to knock on doors in neighborhoods known to be heavily Republican, Mr. Mehlman said, the Bush campaign studied consumer habits in trying to predict whom people would vote for in a presidential election.
"We did what Visa did," Mr. Mehlman said. "We acquired a lot of consumer data. What magazine do you subscribe to? Do you own a gun? How often do the folks go to church? Where do you send your kids to school? Are you married?"
My instinct tells me that we might have something to learn here. The Kerry campaign was effective at using the "old" tactics of canvassing and blanket ads on local network affiliates to drive up vote counts in traditional Democratic countes in Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. It was not particularly effective at mobilizing voters in blue states (look at California or New Jersey) to win the popular vote nationally. It also wasn't particularly effective at improving margins in red states by targeting Democratic voters in very Republican precincts.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/19/politics/19repubs.html
The Bush campaign spent a lot of effort on "niche" national advertising, targeted mailers ("pro-family" to rural areas, etc). Why can we learn something from these targeting tactics?
Media audiences correlate with party identification: This is just common sense. A lot of conservatives listen to country music. A lot of progressives watch Bravo. If you want to drive up the Democratic vote count, put a "get out the vote" message on Bravo, and sure as hell don't put it on Country Music Television.
Targeted messages: The Kerry campaign did target message to local markets. But they didn't do much to target message by other identifiers. Example: environmental ads on the Discovery Channel, "right to choose" ads on Lifetime and We, balanced budget ads on CNBC. (Obviously, this is a form of stereotyping, but it also works, as evidenced by how corporate advertisers use these tactics.) Likewise, with mailers, the party can purchase customer lists from magazines, and target mailers to subscribers to finance publications, outdoors publications, etc.
Rebuilding the party in Red States: There may not be a Democratic majority in Kentucky, but there are a lot of Democrats there. We may not be able to afford blanket advertising in Kentucky, and we may not even want to blanket advertise for fear of mobilizing the Republican majority. But, if we reached just a few more Democrats or persuadables in Kentucky, we might have another Senate seat today. Targeted advertising (cable and other alternative methods) is an affordable way to penetrate red states.
Mobilizing turnout in Blue States: We may not be able to afford blanket advertising in all 50 states, but we need to be mobilizing turnout in the blue states. Targeted advertising is a cost effective way to grow margins in the blue states. Focus advertising on voters who are known for low voter turnout.
Long form advertising: This is something that the Bush campaign didn't use, but I think is very intriguing. Remember Ross Perot's "infomercials" in 1992? Long-form advertising (30 minute informercials) is a great way to lay out a real agenda. They can be bought at fairly low cost during late nights and weekends on cable networks and secondary broadcast stations (WB/UPN). And, if they are compelling, I believe people will seek them out (just as they flip past the ads for a pasta maker.) The debates got a huge audience. People WANT to be informed, but it is difficult to inform people about REALITY (as opposed to simplistic "Bushisms") in 30 seconds.
This diary isn't to take away from the heroic efforts of everybody who worked to mobilize our vote. It is just a few thoughts on how to build upon that effort in 2008.
My bottom line: I think the reality is that the "old" model of "one size fits all" advertising during the 6PM news of your local ABC or NBC affiliate is dying. And we need to adjust.