Rove's target list

Howie Klein dug into that GSA powerpoint presentation to ferret out the GOP's big targets for 2008:

Lampson (TX-22)
Mahoney (FL-16)
McNerney (CA-11)
Space (OH-18)
Hill (IN-09)
Carney (PA-10)
Murphy (PA-08)
Boyda (KS-02)
Sestak (PA-07)
Ellsworth (IN-08)
Shuler (NC-11)
Rodriguez (TX-23)
Kagen (WI-08)
Marshall (GA-08)
Donnelly (IN-02)
Barrow (GA-12)
Altmire (PA-04)
Hall (NY-19)
Gillibrand (NY-20)
Herseth (SD-AL)

I wonder what numbers they're looking at (Rove's own math, probably) if they think that GA-08 and GA-12 are less vulnerable than most of the guys above them on that list. Those are our toughest districts, the only two incumbent races we came close to losing anywhere (including governorships and Senate races). They're no longer freshman in their redistricted seats, so perhaps that's why Rove has pushed them down. Looking at this list, it's clear that the going will be really tough for them. Herseth? In their dreams. They're basing their entire bounce-back strategy on taking out a bunch of freshman from last year's wave election. They might pick up 2-3 of these seats, but we'll pick up many more elsewhere.

Where, elsewhere, you ask? Well, Rove helpfully provides that list as well:

Gerlach (PA), Bachmann (MN), Hayes (NC), Wilson (NM-- rotflmao), Musgrave (CO), Roskam (IL), Shays (CT), Mean Jean Schmidt (OH), Drake (VA), Cubin* (WY), Doolittle (CA), Porter (NV), Walsh (NY), Pryce** (OH), Kuhl** (NY), Ferguson (NJ), Knollenberg* (MI), Young* (AK), Galleghy* (CA), McKeon* (CA), Lewis* (CA), Miller** (CA), Hunter* (CA), Castle* (DE), Young* (FL), Kirk (IL), Hastert* (IL), Lewis (KY), Jindal* (LA), Bartlett* (MD), Ehlers (MI), Walberg (MI), Myrick* (NC), Regula* (OH), Dent (PA) and Davis* (VA).

What's most interesting about this list (other than confirmation that yes, these guys are vulnerable, is the single asterix -- Rove's notation for those reps he thinks will retire (the double asterix are other potential retirees). Of those, only Hunter and maybe Galleghy were already known to be headed for retirement. Cubin was going to retire or get booted out in a primary. WY Republicans are tired of her underperfoming. Castle is holding one of the Bluest districts of any House Republican (D+9 I think). Davis is intriguing, because he's been bandied about as a replacement for Warner if the senator retires. Does Rove know something about that, or is he just playing it safe? Davis is in danger even if he stays in the House. Jindal either wins the governor's race, or he retires the House to run for the Senate.

Rove should've also put every single New York district still held by Republicans (they're down to what, 4?), because those are all in serious peril. There are plenty more that will be competitive by the end of the cycle (like last). This list skews heavily toward those who had tough races last year, but don't forget at least three Democrats who lost by 15-20 in 2004 who won their rematches last year (Boyda, Hodes, and McNerney).

Bottom line, Rove's own list should give us reason to be optimistic. We won't see another major swing election, but we could conceivably come out of the next cycle picking up a net 5-10 seats. Of course, I reserve the right to revise those numbers the longer Bush's Republicans keep dragging out the quagmire in Iraq.