First, I want to start off by saying that I of course, for the sake of the people who have put their lives on the line, that I hope that Iraq gets better. However, I do not think it will due to the fact that anti-American sentiment, be it Shia, Sunni, or whatever, and from this I get my analysis.
First, let me flesh out the structure of this line of attack. The conflict is like cancer in that we have not cured the underlying condition: there are millions of Iraqis that are militantly upset about our presence in their country, and we do not have the troop strength (in the entire military) or the true morale to fight without questioning the meaning of the conflict. This is because victory is not intended to spare us from national demise such as in WWII. It is an elective war. Thus, if these conditions do not change, we cannot control the symptoms of the disease, which will be violence, upheaval, more dead Americans, and quite possibly a failed state.
After all, the rhetoric of the strong, ruthless foreign policy of the neocons has travelled round the world and has visited diplomatic pain upon the countries most likely to support us and death upon those we have leveled our arms against. Thus, the cancer of the approach has tied our hands, and if we are to defeat outright the cancer of violence, we will likely have to admit that we were wrong, and thus our fragile hope of involving other nations will likely be shattered.
Only a political solution can fix this now, but even if 99% of the Iraqi people are peaceful and compliant with any new government, 1% of militants who do not accept it still comprise 260,000 individuals willing to kill Americans and possibly attempt to destroy a new government. Furthermore, any widespread hunger, lack of water or other basic needs of life, along with unemployment, create the conditions necessary for fear, anger, and even the possibility of fascism, or a return to the stability of a dictator. This analysis even precludes the possibility of international aid for the insurgents from sympathetic states.
This is all a function of the cancer that is there. At this point it is unavoidable that a terrible price will be paid.
If Kerry can portray Iraq in such a way, it is truly possible for not only the UN but the US itself to take a positive role in truly combating the problems of violence without true political attempts towards peace, stability and justice.
From this, I hope that the United States can once again come out with a Marshall Plan for the Middle East, perhaps providing fiduciary and diplomatic favors in exchange for greater political rights and economic justice for its citizens.
In this world, we are nearing the end of the time where the United States holds all of the cards, as the War on Terror will sap its strength. If we want to save our role in the world, save our reputation, and save our honor, we must begin constructing and not destructing.
This alone provides all of the justification for why we should fight for John Kerry in the election.