Kerry's achievement is impressive. No non-incumbent has won both Iowa and New Hampshire. I think it's more than just "electability." I think a lot of Democrats and Independents feel a comfort level with Kerry that they don't with the others. Dean, too hot; Edwards, not experienced enough; Clark, not domestic and Democratic enough. I also think that in this post-9/11 world Kerry's Washington experience is a plus, rather than a minus. If he can win in Missouri and Arizona next week, the fat lady will be clearing her throat.
Even without the "scream," I don't think Dean would have won NH. As someone noted, he just couldn't make the transaction from insurgent to frontrunner. A lot of it wasn't his fault; the media clearly gave him the shaft. But going around attacking other Democrats when you're ahead is not good strategy. Dean thinks he can make it to Super Tuesday. I'm not so sure. If he hasn't won anywhere by the time the returns are in in Wisconsin on Feb. 17, I think he'll get out.
Clark clearly has had trouble convincing people of his Democratic and domestic policy credentials. If he doesn't win anywhere next week, I think he'll get out.
Edwards should win South Carolina and stay in through Wisconsin. But if he hasn't won anywhere else, he probably will get out after that. His big problem may be that the March 9 southern state primaries don't come before Super Tuesday.
In short, if I had to bet, I think this thing will be effectively over on the evening of Feb. 17. If Kerry doesn't win Wisconsin, then he may wrap it up on Super Tuesday.
As for Kerry himself, I hope a lot of Kossacks will keep an open mind. There's a long way till Nov. 2, and I hope folks give him a chance to prove himself. He's not my ideal choice, or even my first or second choice, but his record is not bad and his campaign skill may have been underestimated.