As a former North Dakotan from Fargo, I see a lot of people over estimating the importance of Dean's visit to North Dakota, where this Monday he got packed a crowd of over 800 people into the Fargo Radisson. Only 2000 people participated in the 2000 ND caucus, so a lot of people are overly impressed by Dean's draw -- about 40% of those who participated last year.
Don't be. Let's get some facts straight.
- North Dakota's caucus last year was in March, after much of the action had passed (previously, it was completely irrelevant, taking place in June!)
- North Dakota Democrats were angry last time that no one campaigned in their state, so many of them stayed home. This cycle, some members of the ND congressional delegation have stated that they will not endorse any candidate for president who does not campaign in North Dakota.
- Since moving the caucus to the Feb. 3 Mini Tuesday, interest in the state's caucus has exploded. Dean, Clark, and Gephardt have all visted the state or will soon.
- Fargo, ND is not rural. It is the largest city in North Dakota with 90,000 people, plus another 50,000 in its metropolitan area.
- Fargo is a border city, across the Red River from Moorhead, Minnesota (30,000 people). Many people at the event were probably from Moorhead and won't be voting in the ND caucuses!
So, Dean's event is certainly newsworthy and a sign of his strength in North Dakota. But don't overestimate its importance.