Cross posted on Wayne Mattson's blog.
For today's Electoral College update, I have simply taken the most recent state polling numbers as listed on NowChannel.com and plugged the appropriate blue or red onto the map. If the polling numbers hold on Election Day, the map would look like this...
Kerry 297
Bush 241
The state-by-state trends seem to show things are looking good for John Kerry 6-days out of the election; and according to Kevin Drum...
Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%.
As Fabrizio blandly puts it, "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign." More accurately, if Fabrizio is right -- that Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states -- Kerry is a sure winner on November 2.
SO...state-by-state polling is trending our way and a Republican pollster shows Kerry with a clear advantage in the so-called battleground states. If conventional wisdom holds and undecided voters go for John Kerry on Tuesday, then things are looking
really good.
Tomorrow, my official endorsement of John Kerry; and on Sunday, my final prediction of Tuesday's Electoral College map.