Interesting numbers from the latest
Rasmussen national tracker:
Kerry 48
Edwards 25
Sharpton 5
Kucinich 2
"Other" 9
Undecided 11
This poll was conducted the 16th through 18th, and Rasmussen says that "nearly half" the interviews were conducted after the WI results were reported. The table gives Edwards 24, but the headline says 25.
"Other" presumably means mainly Dean - it will be interesting, over the next couple of days, to see how Dean supporters are breaking (and how many stick with Dr. "Other").
National numbers are arguably more meaningful now than they've ever been, given the wide range of states voting on Super Tuesday.
Stupidly, Rasmussen does not tabulate several days' worth of results; each day's table just overwrites the previous one. Cluephone, guys - what use is a tracking poll if it doesn't report the trends? But Roy Teixiera gives the results from a couple of days ago, and 3 days previously:
Kerry 43 (51)
Edwards 25 (18)
I've only seen it mentioned once or twice, here on DKos (and nowhere else), but it seems awfully coincidental that Kerry hit an air pocket at just the time the Drudge story was swirling around - the only time I heard it mentioned on CNN was on Monday.
In any case, Kerry seems to be regaining ground, back up close to 50 percent. Certainly there's no sign that Edwards has gotten mo out of WI - he gained ground in the few days before WI, but has stalled, with no further pickup visible in the post-WI polling.
Edwards' problem is that close was no cigar. WI did nothing to raise real doubts among Kerry supporters, or to send undecideds running toward Edwards. Even if Dean supporters break 2:1 towards Edwards (which assumes both that all "Other" is Dean supporters, and that none stay with Dean), Edwards only stands to pick up a net 3 points.
So the real question now is whether Edwards can actually win anything on Super Tuesday, or make it close enough in enough states to keep Kerry from racking up another huge haul of delegates that would push him up close to the magic number.
-- Rick Robinson