A thought that had been percolating crystalized a couple of days ago when I read that a Kerry spokesperson was
making references to Bush and his "radical policies" after Kerry's success on mini-Tuesday. A quick look at
http://www.johnkerry.com and especially
http://blog.johnkerry.com gives any Dean supporter more than a sneaking feeling of déjà vu. So I say: Dean is to Kerry as Mac is to Windows (or, for those old enough to remember, as Beta was to VHS). What we are witnessing is the oft-repeated phenomenon whereby an innovative product is imitated by its competitors - and it is the latter that emerges victorious.
The producers of the innovative product catch the imagination of a particular segment of the consuming public, which believes that it has at last been offered an item it has long been seeking. The innovative product explodes onto the scene and the pundits are overawed. It will revolutionize everything (as its devoted fans attest) and it soon has made more of a mark on America then its early adherents might have hoped.
But there is a problem. Most of the American public, while aware of the impact that this product has made, have not yet purchased it themselves. They have heard good things about it and are increasingly interested, but they have not yet completely understood why the devoted fans are quite as fervent as they are. In the meantime, other enterprising individuals in the same market can't help but have noted the success and buzz surrounding said innovative product, and they begin to devise ways to cash in. They develop or redesign their products (themselves) to appear identical with the original, but they are more clever salesmen. They aren't quite so fervent in their pitch. They quietly begin to take over the market with ordinary consumers. Soon, they have cornered enough of the market that those who haven't bought in yet think that they are the way to go. The only way to go.
The fervent fans and producers of the original innovative product are dismayed, outraged. How can this still-inferior imitation be outstripping the item that has revolutionized everything. These people haven't been paying attention, and they don't get it. The other product is clunky and imperfect, not nearly as user friendly. But their voices are drowned out by the overwhelming success of the imitator. The popular will has spoken, and the story is first how the newcomer outstripped the original, and eventually the original becomes a footnote while the imitator reigns supreme. The guru (Steve Jobs/ Joe Trippi) who had been hailed as a visionary is driven out of the very business that he himself has created as it struggles for its very survival.
There is a coda to this story, or, more accurately, a prequel. If you look back a bit further in history, you see, it turns out that the innovator wasn't quite so original either. After all it was those folks at Xerox PARC (many of whom would later join Apple) who first came up with GUI, and, as RonK in Seattle noted here last week, many of the central principles behind Dean's candidacy had been developed over several decades by one of Trippi's own former colleagues, Patrick Caddell. It was the genius of Steve Jobs and Joe Trippi to figure out how first to bring these ideas to market and create a sensational product; it was the "genius" of Bill Gates and Mary Beth Cahill to have the patience, perseverence, and organizational foresight to turn the ideas from sensation into a product that nearly monopolizes its field.
Needless to say, the analogy breaks down if you try to take it too far. Unlike Windows, John Kerry is not a new product brought to market (he has many years of political experience, after all), but rather a reinvented one. That makes the competitor's cries of "foul" that much more bitter, but it also means he has more substance than those of us who are just starting to pay attention to him may realize. It also means that he carries with him some qualities that the "innovative" product could never have developed (e.g. war hero status).
The analogy also breaks down over the fact that Apple managed to survive in its niche market and maintain its adamantly loyal following (including yours truly). A presidential nomination race allows, of course, only one victor, and the vast majority of Dean's followers (including yours truly) will reluctantly make the switch to Windows, er, Kerry, because the product, in one form or another, is very, very necessary. But can Dean have some kind of Mac-like future, surviving, still developing innovations and pushing his far more successful rival along? His devotees can only hope so, although it is not yet clear in what form. Perhaps it will somehow involve Joe Trippi, despite all of his failings, in the end of ends. After all, Steve Jobs did return to Apple.