I have seen several websites with electoral count projections, and now Rasmussen is going to release their own version tommorow. I think its way too early to be adding up numbers. Heres why:
Electoral counts are a little bogus right now. Just three states PA, OH & Fl can shift the count 70 points one way or the other, its just ridiculous to take seriously until October. If you have a basic understanding of the electoral college you can figure out what states Kerry or Bush absolutely must win. Aside from that however there are probably a good 10 different combinations that could give Kerry or Bush a win in a close election. With polls shifting back and forth in these 3 states it is very difficult to predict who will win them unless one of the canidates pulls ahead nationally by a decent margin.
In my opinion there are three numbers to pay close attention to RIGHT NOW.
- Bush's approval
- Direction of country
- Bush's reelect numbers against Kerry
(not Kerry's numbers even though they are becoming increasingly important)
If #1 and #3 continue to stay were they are at, Bush is in serious trouble. He doesn't have the kind of wiggle room that Kerry does as far as improving his image. I know Kos and others have said this many times, but I find it worth repeating in this context.