Encouraging.
Just did the calculations based on the combined results out of every state on www.electoral-vote.com. If ALL polls agreed on one leader, I put that state in their column. If the polls contradicted each other I left it undecided. If only one poll was available and it was consistantly for one candidate, they get it.
Comes out with Kerry ahead 258 to 181 Bush.
These are the states with contradicting polls:
New Hampshire
Ohio
Wisconsin
Iowa
Colorado
Nevada
Arkasas
Florida (of course)
Tennessee - has swung both ways, though mostly for Bush.
More fun with numbers.
Interestingly enough, if you assign the toss-ups to the most likey winner for each state, it comes down to . . . you guessed it: Ohio and Florida.
Kerry can win if he takes either one. If he doesn't get at least one of them he loses. Right now Ohio is leaning Bush. That leaves "Oh No Not Again!" Florida. Watch for more major election rigging black magic performed by the nefarious Brother Jeb. Voodoo is still practiced in many parts of the deep south . . .