Iraqis Say Surge Has Failed

In an extraordinary poll (.pdf) jointly run by ABC News, the BBC and the Japanese broadcaster NHK, Iraqis look at the surge results as a failure, a conclusion reached by both English-speaking news organizations. From ABC News' Gary Langer

More Iraqis say security in their local area has gotten worse in the last six months than say it's gotten better, 31 percent to 24 percent, with the rest reporting no change. Far more, six in 10, say security in the country overall has worsened since the surge began, while just one in 10 sees improvement.

More directly assessing the surge itself -- a measure that necessarily includes views of the United States, which are highly negative -- 65 to 70 percent of Iraqis say it's worsened rather than improved security, political stability and the pace of redevelopment alike.

There are some improvements, but they're sparse and inconsistent. Thirty-eight percent in Anbar province, a focal point of the surge, now rate local security positively; none did so six months ago. In Baghdad fewer now describe themselves as feeling completely unsafe in their own neighborhoods -- 58 percent, down from 84 percent. Yet other assessments of security in these locales have not improved, nor has the view nationally.

Overall, 41 percent report security as their greatest personal problem, down seven points from 48 percent in March. But there's been essentially no change in the number who call it the nation's top problem (56 percent, with an additional 28 percent citing political or military issues). And there are other problems aplenty to sour the public's outlook -- lack of jobs, poor power and fuel supply, poor medical services and many more.

More highlights from the detailed polling, and a hat tip to Ben P for these observations:

• The number of Iraqis endorsing attacks on US troops has INCREASED since March (ie since the surge has taken effect): 57% as compared to 50% now endorse such attacks (93% of Sunnis, 50% of Shiites, 5% of Kurds). [Note those Sunni numbers!]
• The number of Iraqis saying security has WORSENED since the current US troop buildup (this is an answer to a specific question about the "Surge") is 70%. Only 12% think it has improved things in the country.
• The number of Iraqis in favor of an IMMEDIATE withdrawal of US troops is now 47%, up from 34% in March
• the number of respondents expressing "a great deal of confidence" in Coalition forces is 4%. The number expressing "no confidence at all" in coalition forces is 58% (up from 52% in March). Overall 85% of Iraqis express little or no confidence in coalition forces (up from 82% this March)
• 53% of Iraqis strongly oppose the presence of coalition forces (the highest number ever, up from March of this year). Only 5% strongly approve their presence. In total 79% disapprove of their presence and 21% approve their presence. This is unchanged from earlier this year.
• On "Al Qaeda," 0% of respondents support attacks by AQ on Iraqis, 1% support AQ attempts to "take over communities," but 48% support AQ attacks on Americans.
• The Maliki government has an approval rating now of 33% (down from 41% in March)

This is hardly the winning of hearts and minds.

The poll suggests that the overall mood in Iraq is as negative as it has been since the US-led invasion in 2003, says BBC world affairs correspondent Nick Childs.

More BBC graphs can be found here and here (h/t Ott). Iraqis by a wide margin do not feel safer in areas where surge forces were sent. And from the poll .pdf:

Apart from a few scattered gains, a new national survey by ABC News, the BBC and the Japanese broadcaster NHK finds deepening dissatisfaction with conditions in Iraq, lower
ratings for the national government and growing rejection of the U.S. role there. More Iraqis say security in their local area has gotten worse in the last six months than say it’s gotten better, 31 percent to 24 percent, with the rest reporting no change. Far more, six in 10, say security in the country overall has worsened since the surge began, while just one in 10 sees improvement.

On what justification is the claim of success by the Bush administration based? Not only has there been no political reconciliation in a situation that has no military solution, the Iraqi people do not feel safer because of the surge.

Indeed, apart from Kurds, support for immediate withdrawal is lowest, and has risen the least, in Baghdad, whose mixed Shiite-Sunni status puts it at particular risk. Desire for the United States to "leave now" is highest in Anbar, still deeply anti-American despite any accommodation its leaders have made with the U.S. military.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, and the claims by the Bush administration of success are not backed up by independent reports. What does that tell you? It tells us that the American public is right to not trust the WH to tell the truth about Iraq.