Sizing Up Super Tuesday

It's still a few weeks away, and a big win for either Clinton or Obama in South Carolina could disrupt the relative state of equilibrium and give one of them big momentum going into Super Tuesday. But assuming neither candidate picks up a lot of momentum from South Carolina, here are my predictions for Super Tuesday:

Alabama
There was a poll released showing Clinton up three here, but I'd still give the edge to Obama, given the high concentration of African American voters, who went for Obama over 2-1 in Nevada.

Alaska
I honestly know very little about Alaska politics, but since i doubt either candidate will campaign there, I'd give it to Clinton on name recognition. This might actually be a good state for Edwards to campaign in if he decides to stay in through Super Tuesday (assuming he does not win South Carolina). Since it's unlikely that the other candidates will make the trek out to Alaska, it could be an opening for Edwards to campaign and get a win to his name.

Arkansas
If Clinton doesn't win here, her campaign is in real trouble.

Arizona
This is a tough one. Given the way the Latino vote broke down in Nevada, Clinton appears to have the edge here. But Obama did get Governor Napolitano's endorsement, so it depends how big of a role that plays. I understand that she is pretty popular among Democrats in Arizona, so her endorsement might carry some weight.

California
The big prize. So far, Clinton has an edge here, and the Latino vote seems to be going her way, so if I had to bet I'd give it to Clinton. But I'm not counting Obama out here...he has a lot of influential fans in Hollywood, and Clinton tends to lead by default in states where neither has spent a lot of time campaigning, probably due to higher name recognition. Once the candidates shift their attention I expect to see the polls start to tighten up in California.

Colorado
No obvious favorite here, but Clinton seems to have an edge with Latino voters, so she probably has a bit of a leg up.

Connecticut
Big regional advantage for Clinton in Connecticut. The southern part of the state falls in the New York media market and roots for the Yankees. If Obama can win here it would be pretty impressive.

Delaware
My money's on Clinton here, due to regional proximity. If Biden decides to endorse anyone, that would probably be a big bump.

Georgia
Haven't seen any polling so far, but I'd guess that Obama has the edge, due to the large number of African American voters. But if he doesn't win South Carolina, that means Clinton may have recovered among African American voters, which would obviously hurt Obama in states like Georgia and Alabama.

Idaho
Like Alaska, probably not a state that will receive a lot of attention from the candidates. So Clinton has the edge on name recognition, though momentum from SC will play a role. This might be another good state for Edwards to focus on - it's small, a cheap ad buy, and likely to be ignored by the other candidates.

Illinois
If Obama doesn't win here, we'll know the race is over.

Massachusetts
My money would have been on Clinton a few weeks ago, due to regional proximity and higher name recognition. But the Kerry endorsement might shift things a little bit towards Obama. If Teddy endorses either candidate before Super Tuesday, that will probably have an even bigger impact.

Minnesota
Obama probably has a bit of a regional advantage here, though I don't believe there are overlapping media markets. Minnesota is next door to Iowa and shares some cultural similarities, so Obama's victory in Iowa bodes well for his prospects in Minnesota.

Missouri
Between regional proximity and the McCaskill endorsement, Obama probably has the edge here, assuming there is no big national shift toward Clinton before February 5.

New Jersey
Clinton's definitely got the edge here, due to regional proximity. Half the state gets its media from New York, and absent a big shift toward Obama coming out of South Carolina, Clinton remains favored to win New Jersey.

New Mexico
If the Latino vote in Nevada is any indication, Clinton will probably do pretty well here. If Richardson's name is still on the ballot (does anyone know if it will be?) he might get a few points here as well (remember, Dean won his home state in 2004 three weeks after dropping out). If RIchardson decides to endorse a candidate before February 5, that would be a big boost in New Mexico.

New York
Not sure why all the pollsters suddenly became obsessed with polling New York...if Clinton doesn't win, it'll be the equivalent of a political earthquake. If today's polls are any indication, though, it may not be a total blowout - Obama looks like he will definitely receive enough votes to pass the 15% threshold for delegates, and he could get as much as 30% of the vote.

North Dakota
See Idaho and Alaska.

Oklahoma
This one's tough to call, because neither candidate starts out with any obvious advantage here. I have not seen any polling on how Native Americans are voting in the primaries, but if they lean one way or the other, that should have some impact. Native Americans make up about 8% of the population in Oklahoma, and probably a greater share of the Democratic primary electorate. African Americans are about 7.5% of the total population. If Edwards wins South Carolina, he could have momentum that enables him to carry a few southern states, and Oklahoma might be a particularly attractive state for Edwards, since it's a southern state but does not have a huge African American population.

Tennessee
African Americans make up 17% of the population here, and they comprised 23% of the Democratic primary electorate in 2004. But Clinton won Tennessee twice (albeit with Gore on the ticket), and Tennesseans might be wary about Obama's chances after what happened last year with Harold Ford. If Gore were to make an endorsement before February 5, that might give one of the candidates an edge here (and across the country!)

Utah
Not a big prize, but Clinton probably has the edge, since there are so few African Americans in Utah. But there weren't a lot in Iowa either, and that didn't stop Obama from winning.

Obviously, performance on Super Tuesday depends on the outcome in South Carolina, as well as which states each candidate chooses to prioritize. This is just a first look at the Super Tuesday states, and any factors that give either candidate a built-in advantage in each state.