Hillary's Hurdle, Part II: Obama's Obstacle

I posted a diary a few days ago discussing the potential issues facing the Clinton campaign.

This diary updates that diary and discusses the obstacles facing Obama.

Since the South Carolina primary four relevant events have happened; two favor Obama and two favor Clinton.

1.  First, Caroline Kennedy wrote a powerful endorsement of Obama explicitly comparing him with JFK. This was followed by Senator Kennedy endorsing Obama.  Most endorsements don't mean that much.  This may be an exception with three groups: (i) older voters; (ii) Irish/Catholic voters; (iii) voters from Massachusetts.  It has also been suggested that the Kennedy ensorsement will help with Latino voters, but I'm a bit more skeptical of that.  

2.  Note that the Clinton campaign displayed its usual, excellent tactical skills in countering the favorable Obama endorsement, by highlighting the previous endorsement of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and having her write an op-ed published in the LA Times.  Good tactical response, but not really enough to blunt the edge Obama gained.

3.  The third event is the "snub" of Clinton by Obama.  Whatever the reality, Clinton gains from this by (i) creating cracks in the impression that Obama is a mentsch and (ii) braking his momentum.

4.  The fourth event is the Florida primary.  While not relevant in terms of delegate count, it will somewhat blunt the momentum from South Carolina and enable Hillary to point out that she can win a state by a large margin.  

5. Overall, Obama has continued to gain traction over the last couple of days. However, given how far behind he was to start with, it remains hard to see how he draws even with Clinton.  

6.  Looking at the state of the race currently, it appears that Clinton leads Obama by 74 delegates, a decline of 4 from a few days ago.  Logically, this lead should continue to decline somewhat between now and Super Tuesday, but it is hard to see how it drops below 65.

7.  I have seen recent polls for only a few states.  In general, they show that Clinton remains in the lead. Obama, has however, narrowed these leads somewhat.

8.  The next step is really speculative, but here goes.

9.  States where Obama is likely to have an advantage:

Alabama -  52 pledged delegates; demographics somewhat like SC; assume Obama + 10
Connecticutt- 48 pledged delegates; relatively more affluent state; also more affected by the Kennedy endorsement; assume Obama + 10
Georgia - 87 pledged delegates; similar to the assumptions about Alabama; assume Obama +15
Illinois - 153 pledged delegates; home state; Obama +100
Massachusetts - 93 pledged delegates; Kennedy, Kerry and Patrick; Obama + 50

Total Obama gain: 175

10.  States where Clinton is likely to have an advantage:

Arkansas - 35 pledged delegates;  Clinton + 20
California - 370 pledged delegates; she's leading; there have been lots of absentee votes; she has lots of the establishment; its hard to see how she doesn't pick up at least a few delegates here;  Clinton + 20
New York - 232 pledged delegates; Obama will do very well in African American district and Manhattan; but the state really does belong to Clinton; Clinton + 150
Oklahoma - 38 pledged delegates;  the polls consistently have shown Obama in third place; this makes it pretty hard to see how the delegates get split evenly between Clinton and Obama; Clinton + 10

Total Clinton gain: + 200

11.  States where there is no reason to believe anyone has an inherent advantage:

Arizona
Alaska
Colorado
Delaware
Idaho
Kansas
Minnesota
Missouri
New Jersey
New Mexico
North Dakota
Tennessee
Utah

Although I expect that Clinton will win most of these states, I assume that proportional representation will mean that the delegates are split evenly. This will, however, give Clinton a very significant momentum boost.

12. Also, please note that if she wins states as I describe, she's likely to somewhat increase her lead in super delegates as one safe option for them is to treat themselves as pledged and vote the way their state or district does.  Reasonably, one could assume that she nets another ten delegates or so over Obama, increasing her lead to 100.

13.  My very speculative result has Obama exiting Super Tuesday about 100 delegates behind.  This is not an insurmountable number, but given the momentum that Clinton gains from her victories, where and how will Obama make up this deficit?