Surprising Turnout for Dems in FL
Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:41:50 PM PDT
I am the first to declare the Florida primary "meaningless." I say that in the basic and definitional sense: the votes will NOT lead to the seating of delegates at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. The votes, thus, have no tangible significance in the selection of a Presidential candidate. Yet, voter turnout on the Democratic side was shockingly high for a veritable "beauty contest." Something is going on.
Most Florida Democratic voters knew that their votes would lead to no delegates at the convention, and all of the candidates respected the DNC decision by refusing to campaign there. ALL of the buzz in Florida of late has been on the Republican side. A vigorously contested election, including Rudy even, drew all of the political attention in Florida the last few months. One wouldn't be hardpressed to imagine that Democratic turnout would be puny - both because the result doesn't matter and perhaps, as a protest against the whole fiasco. I would have though GOP turnout would at least double that of the Democrats, even though Democrats have a slight voter registration edge.
Yet, the opposite has happened. With 95% of votes in at this time, Republican votes totaled 1,879,516 and Democrats recorded 1,652,241 votes in what can only be described as a beauty contest based on national name recognition.
No GOTV. No local ads. No campaigning on the Democratic side at all. Zilch. And yet, 47% of all votes cast today were for the Democratic candidates. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, all the GOTV operations were in full swing, including Rudy's desperate gambit, full pandering to Cuban exiles, the Governor's earth-shattering endorsement, massive TV ad buys, major rallies, a debate, etc - and for a contest that many assume will establish the true frontrunner in the nomination battle. And it only produced 53% of all voters.
Alas, the real story again may be the enthusiasm gap. I think Hillary supporters are wrong to tout her "victory" there because of the obvious media manipulation. But the larger point about 1.6 million Democrats showing up to the polls is a legitimate one...not because it means the delegates should be seated, but because of what it says about basic enthusiasm among Democratic voters.
In the end, Republican turnout should have been 70% of the total. Instead, it was only 53%. That's the real story out of Florida tonight.