It won't be over today

I know in politics people end up living in the moment, caught up in that day's big news. It felt that way after Iowa, and it will feel that way after New Hampshire tonight. But no matter how strongly you might feel that Obama has wrapped things up, this thing is still a ways from wrapping up.

Jerome is firm in his belief that Obama won't win this thing. A bold prediction, no less, but one that he backs up with cold logic.

Obviously, the race has shifted from "Clinton's to lose" to "Obama's to lose" but he certainly can. Let's look assume a clear NH victory by Obama (anything otherwise would awake the "its over" crowd on its own) and look at what follows:

Jan 15: Michigan
Jan 19: Nevada
Jan 26: South Carolina
Jan 29: Florida

Feb 5: Super-duper Tuesday [...]

There will be 10 days to pass between New Hampshire and Nevada; then 7 days till South Carolina, and 3 days till Florida.

Nevada is a bit of a wildcard. You have to assume that Trippi is correct, and Obama gets the Culinary endorsement, but 10 days is a ways, and that's going to provide a window. If Clinton, or Edwards, won in either Nevada or South Carolina, that would shake up the race, but Obama seems poised to win them both, and then Florida.

Now, unlike Michigan, Obama and Edwards are on the ballot in Florida. It presents a quandary for them: do they campaign there or do they ignore Florida? Do they wait and see what Clinton does first?

The Republicans are going to be battling it out in Florida for 10 days, following South Carolina. The media coverage will be huge. There will be polls on both sides. I don't see how Clinton can ignore Florida, and expect to go into Feb 5th with any kind of momentum. It's got demographics that favor her, and is a closed democratic primary. And if Clinton goes big into Florida, I don't see how Obama or Edwards can ignore the state's election, and then it matters even more, and a Clinton win in Florida is even bigger.

That's Jan, then on Feb 5th, Clinton is going to win a lot more states and their delegates. So will Edwards. They will both ensure that Obama does not have enough delegates to win the nomination on his own.

Jerome mocks me playfully for talking about the Obama surge, but it's real. And the leading indicators are even stronger in favor of Obama:

Sixty-six percent (66%) of Americans believe that Barack Obama is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if he is nominated by the Democratic Party. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 55% believe that Clinton has a chance to win if nominated.

Both Democrats score higher than leading Republican candidates. Forty-eight percent (48%) say that John McCain would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Forty-six percent (46%) say the same about Mike Huckabee and 37% believe Rudy Giuliani would have a chance.

That is, Obama is seen as the most "electable", and after victories in NH, SC, and Nevada, that perception will only solidify. Winning elections goes a long way towards convincing people you can, well, win elections. The national numbers are evolving in that direction -- with Hillary losing another point today in the Rasmussen national tracking poll. What used to be a 19-point Hillary lead (42C/23O/16E) is now a 3-point lead (32C/29O/20E) one, a statistical dead heat. Yeah, much of that stems from Clinton's collapse, but the trend will only accelerate as people become more acquainted and comfortable with Obama.

In the end, I think Obama wins this thing, and fairly comfortably. That's the safe call at this point, but one backed up by the evidence. Jerome is making a rational and quite plausible case that Obama's current success will open him up to greater scrutiny, and he'll falter in the weeks after South Carolina ending up with a losing dogfight for delegates with Clinton and Edwards.

In the end, one of us will get bragging rights. Or maybe none of us. Politics has a way of constantly surprising. Time will decide. But one thing's for sure -- no matter how Obama does tonight, this thing ain't over. Both Edwards and Clinton have the money to move forward, and Clinton's entire strategy at this point is built around the February 5 states. So this thing will last at least for that long.

With quick knockouts by Gore and Kerry the last two primary battles, and a Bill Clinton reelection coronation the cycle before that, we've forgotten what a real primary contest looks like. You have to go back 16 long years to 1992 for one of those.