My Advice to John Edwards

For months, I have been really torn between Edwards and Obama. I find Barack Obama fresh and inspiring, but I like Edwards' populist message and the fact that he talks about issues like poverty that often get swept under the radar. I wish Edwards had done better in Iowa, and that it was a genuine three-person race and being portrayed as such. But unfortunately, I don't see that happening at this point. He has a powerful message, but I am afraid that going forward, his message will receive little attention from the media, and discussions of his campaign will be limited to how he impacts the fight between Clinton and Obama. At some point, Edwards could become little more than an enabler for Clinton, and judging from his statements both about change in the abstract and about the other candidates, I would guess that that is not the role he wants to play.

I want to be clear that I am not calling for Edwards to drop out yet. I agree with his point about giving the other 99% of Democratic voters the chance to vote, and he might have a fighting chance in South Carolina. If I were his campaign manager, I would tell him to write off Nevada completely, which will help Obama and help prevent Clinton from emerging as the clear frontrunner, which would doom any chance Edwards has. He should put all of his resources into South Carolina, and if he doesn't win there, he should drop out and throw his support to Obama before February 5.

Edwards has a powerful message that deserves to be heard, but if he doesn't win South Carolina, he'll become little more than a footnote in campaign coverage going forward, and he won't be able to use the campaign to get his message out, except maybe preaching to the choir at rallies and fundraisers.  If anything, staying in the race until the convention could make him look like the guy who didn't know when to quit, turn party leaders and activists against him, and make it more difficult for him to play any sort of public role in the future that enables him to be an agent for the changes he is calling for. I am afraid that if he stays in this until the convention, he will become a joke, and will not have the opportunity to make an impact on the election or afterwards.

If Edwards drops out after South Carolina and throws his support to Obama before February 5, Obama won't forget it. I could see Edwards getting a spot in the cabinet, perhaps as Secretary of Labor or HHS, or maybe White House Counsel. In all of those roles, he will have more opportunity to fight for working people and economic fairness than he will from this point on on the campaign trail.