WA-08: It's Still a Tough One

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Reichert (R) 49
Burner (D) 41

Not so great, but better than the SUSA poll from a month ago that had Reichert leading 54-44. Reichert under 50 with a month to go is much, much better. But the poll is showing a positive trend, Reichert is below 50, and his approvals are below 50. (Full crosstabs below the fold.)

This is in contrast to an internal poll Darcy's campaign is citing (via e-mail) that has her up 50-41. With no crosstabs on that internal poll available, it's impossible to compare. One of the methodological issues that could be affecting polling in this district is that, being one of the most tech-oriented districts in the nation, there are a lot of cell phone only households who aren't being reached.

That said, Darcy is running against a celebrity. While the real history of the King Co. sheriff's department investigation of the Green River Killer is complex and doesn't shine a particularly flattering light on Reichert, he still gets tremendous mileage out of being "The Sheriff." Every interview, every profile, every commercial, he never fails to work in the fact that he's "The Sheriff." And, frankly, the local media has let him get away with it.

They've been so undemanding of him that he repeated his biggest (largely unreported upon) trick from the sole 2006 debate: he told the moderators and audience that he was just going to skip the question on media consolidation because he didn't know enough about it.

This time it was a question on abortion, a key issue for this predominantly pro-choice district. Reichert was asked what Congress should do if the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, and he didn't answer the question, saying it wasn't an issue for Congress. At least the Seattle PI's blogging reporter included that in his story. For the record, he's anti-choice to the point of believing pharmacists should be allowed to refuse to dispense birth control.

Defining Reichert's far-right positions and his utter ineffectiveness as a Congressman is going to be the key for the next month, and it's going to be a challenge. No one knows that better than Darcy.

On the Web:
Darcy Burner for Congress
Orange to Blue

WA-8 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Eight Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 5 and October 7, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

                   SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  190 (48%)
Women                210 (52%)

Democrats            140 (35%)
Republicans          144 (36%)
Independents/Other   116 (29%)

18-29                 70 (17%)
30-44                132 (33%)
45-59                136 (34%)
60+                   62 (16%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dave Reichert? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 14%         32%         28%         13%         13%

MEN                 16%         35%         25%         12%         12%
WOMEN               12%         29%         31%         14%         14%

DEMOCRATS            8%         23%         41%         22%          6%
REPUBLICANS         21%         41%         16%          5%         17%
INDEPENDENTS        13%         33%         27%         12%         15%

18-29               11%         28%         31%         15%         15%
30-44               17%         36%         25%         11%         11%
45-59               13%         31%         29%         14%         13%
60+                 15%         33%         27%         12%         13%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Darcy Burner? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         30%         26%         11%         20%

MEN                 12%         27%         29%         13%         19%
WOMEN               14%         33%         23%          9%         21%

DEMOCRATS           21%         42%         16%          6%         15%
REPUBLICANS          6%         19%         37%         17%         21%
INDEPENDENTS        12%         29%         25%         10%         24%

18-29               15%         32%         24%          9%         20%
30-44               11%         27%         28%         13%         21%
45-59               14%         32%         25%         10%         19%
60+                 12%         29%         27%         11%         21%

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Darcy Burner the Democrat or Dave Reichert the Republican?

                   REICHERT    BURNER      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         41%          2%          8%

MEN                 53%         39%          2%          6%
WOMEN               45%         43%          2%         10%

DEMOCRATS           12%         76%          2%         10%
REPUBLICANS         84%          7%          1%          8%
OTHER               51%         40%          3%          6%

18-29               47%         43%          2%          8%
30-44               51%         38%          3%          8%
45-59               48%         42%          2%          8%
60+                 50%         40%          1%          9%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 47%         43%          3%          7%

MEN                 43%         49%          3%          5%
WOMEN               51%         37%          3%          9%

DEMOCRATS           84%          7%          2%          7%
REPUBLICANS          9%         81%          3%          7%
OTHER               48%         41%          4%          7%

18-29               50%         40%          2%          8%
30-44               43%         47%          4%          6%
45-59               48%         42%          4%          6%
60+                 47%         43%          2%          8%