WV-02: Capito (R) has solid lead, Obama trails by single digits

Incumbent Republican Shelley Moore Capito appears poised to win reelection in West Virginia's Second District, as she enjoys a solid lead over a viable Democratic challenger, Anne Barth.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/7-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Capito (R) 53
Barth (D) 39

That's not exactly beautiful for Barth. She was perceived as a fairly strong candidate - she had the support of the state and national parties, including the heavy hitter Senator Robert Byrd (Barth is Byrd's former state director).

Nevertheless, Capito enjoys a very solid lead - the same 14-point margin by which she won in 2006. If Capito can hold this lead, she may be safe from challenges for the foreseeable future. The best chance at defeating Capito may come if and when she runs for Senate or Governor in the future.

There is some very bright new, however. Obama is performing fairly well in the district - he trails only 48% to 41% in WV-02. The Second District is slightly more Republican than the district as a whole, so this poll, at least, would seem to indicate that an upset victory is not out of the question for Obama in West Virginia.

             WV-2 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Second Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 6 and October 8, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

                   SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  191 (48%)
Women                209 (52%)

Democrats            152 (38%)
Republicans          134 (33%)
Independents/Other   114 (29%)

18-29                 68 (17%)
30-44                128 (32%)
45-59                132 (33%)
60+                   72 (18%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Shelly Moore Capito? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 19%         34%         26%         11%         10%

MEN                 20%         36%         26%         10%          8%
WOMEN               18%         32%         26%         12%         12%

DEMOCRATS           12%         25%         37%         17%          9%
REPUBLICANS         26%         41%         16%          6%         11%
INDEPENDENTS        19%         36%         25%          9%         11%

18-29               17%         32%         28%         13%         10%
30-44               21%         36%         24%          9%         10%
45-59               18%         34%         25%         11%         12%
60+                 20%         35%         27%         10%          8%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ann Barth? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 14%         32%         18%          9%         27%

MEN                 12%         29%         22%         11%         26%
WOMEN               16%         35%         14%          7%         28%

DEMOCRATS           23%         44%         10%          5%         18%
REPUBLICANS          7%         19%         26%         14%         34%
INDEPENDENTS        13%         33%         18%          8%         28%

18-29               16%         34%         15%          7%         28%
30-44               12%         29%         21%         11%         27%
45-59               15%         33%         17%          8%         27%
60+                 13%         32%         19%         10%         26%

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Ann Barth the Democrat or Shelly Moore Capito the Republican?

                   CAPITO      BARTH       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 53%         39%          8%

MEN                 56%         37%          7%
WOMEN               50%         41%          9%

DEMOCRATS           18%         78%          4%
REPUBLICANS         84%          5%         11%
OTHER               57%         34%          9%

18-29               49%         43%          8%
30-44               57%         36%          7%
45-59               52%         39%          9%
60+                 54%         38%          8%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 48%         41%          2%          9%

MEN                 52%         39%          2%          7%
WOMEN               44%         43%          2%         11%

DEMOCRATS           14%         76%          2%          8%
REPUBLICANS         83%          5%          2%         10%
OTHER               47%         42%          2%          9%

18-29               44%         44%          2%         10%
30-44               51%         37%          3%          9%
45-59               47%         41%          2%         10%
60+                 49%         42%          1%          8%