House and Senate Race Roundup

NJ-Sen: It is looking as though incumbent Democrat Frank R. Lautenberg will cruise to reelection in New Jersey's Senate race, a reelection which will grant him his fifth term in the U.S. Senate.

Rasmussen. 10/7. Likely voters. MoE 4.4%

Lautenberg (D) 51
Zimmer (R) 37

With momentum currently on the Democratic side, and Zimmer having limited profile in the state, it's tough to see Lautenberg losing barring a serious gaffe.

NH-Sen: New ad from Jeanne Shaheen:

VA-05: Very good poll for Democrat Tom Perriello, who faces incumbent Republican Virgil Goode in Virginia's 5th:

Benenson Strategy Group for Tom Perriello. 10/7-9. Likely voters. MoE 5% (July numbers)

Goode (R) 48 (56)
Perriello (D) 40 (31)

No Democrat has run strongly in this district since...well, since Goode was a Democrat. Perriello has closed significant ground since July, and while a victory here would be a stunning upset, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

NV-02: The first good news in a while for Republican incumbent Jon Porter; Mason-Dixon has him ahead of Democrat Dina Titus, albeit by only three points and well under 50%.

Mason-Dixon. 10/8-9. Likely voters. MoE 6% (6/9-11 numbers)

Porter (R) 43 (45)
Titus (D) 40 (42)

The good news for Democrats is that Dem internals show Titus leading, and Porter is at just 43% even in this poll, the best one to come out for him so far. With a margin of error of 6 points, as well, the usually venerable Mason-Dixon may have a slightly dubious poll here, as well.

AZ-03: DCCC internals have Democrat Bob Lord actually leading incumbent Republican John Shadegg:

Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC. 10/6-8. Likely voters. MoE 4.9%

Lord (D) 45
Shadegg (R) 44

This is in contrast to Research 2000's poll for Daily Kos, which has Shadegg leading Lord 48% to 39%.

IN-03: In this blood-red R+16.3 district, Democrat Michael Montagano - a 27-year-old attorney - apparently has a chance to pull off a stunning upset against Republican incumbent Mark Souder.

Cooper & Secrest for Michael Montagano. 10/6-7. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (9/9-10 numbers, April numbers)

Souder (R) 44 (50, 55)
Montagano (D) 39 (37, 28)

That's quite a lot of movement for Montagano, who has also proven a solid fundraiser. Despite the redness of the district, Souder has proven a weak campaigner in the past, nearly losing in 2006 to insurgent Democratic candidate Tom Hayhurst (Souder won that election 54-46).

A Montagano victory would send shockwaves through the country, and a good barometer of an impending Democratic tidal wave. It should not be expected by any means, but this race should be a very interesting one to watch as polls close on election night.