Tracking Poll Update

All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the tracker numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and today's two national polls (with previous data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.

                 Obama      McCain    MoE +/-   RV/LV
Today
Research 2000:  52 (53)    40 (40)    3         LV
Reuters/Zogby:  48 (49)    44 (43)    2.8       LV
Battleground:   51 (51)    43 (43)    3.5       LV  last reported Friday
Rasmussen:      50 (51)    45 (45)    2         LV
Diageo/Hotline: 48 (49)    42 (41)    3.4       LV
Gallup:         51 (50)    41 (43)    2         RV

ABC-WaPo:       53 (50)    43 (46)    3         LV
D-Corps (D):    50 (48)    40 (45)    4.3       LV
USAToday/Gallup:52 (--)    45 (--)    3         LV II, no trend
USAToday/Gallup:50 (44)    46 (54)    4         LV I, trend
USAToday/Gallup:51 (46)    44 (50)    3         RV, trend

Kos discusses the Gallup LV models and results here. Gallup uses them in a new USA/Gallup poll.

The pollsters at Gallup this afternoon have four different ways of measuring the presidential race. And while the results vary, they all reach the same conclusion: At this moment, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain.

Charles Franklin analyzes the trackers here. As a group, they match well with the pollster.com average. Click for bigger graph:

Prof. Franklin also looks at 'house effect', the methodological tendency to favor one side or another. R2K is most Obama friendly, and Zogby most McCain friendly this year, undoubtedly due to the weighting decisions made by the pollsters (the party ID, younger voters, etc).

As the above nine polls show, there is no 'poll tightening' despite efforts to say otherwise. There is a point or two of statistical noise. Scott Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That’s a bit closer than numbers from a week ago when Obama enjoyed an eight-point advantage, his largest lead of the year.

Still, the data continues to suggest a very stable race with Obama as the clear frontrunner. This is the eighteenth straight day that Obama’s support has stayed in the narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% (see trends).

Here are some interesting tidbits from the ABC write-up of their poll (Gary Langer):

At 23 percent, Bush’s job approval rating has fallen below Nixon’s lowest; it’s a point away from the lowest in 70 years of polling, set by Harry Truman in early 1952. Bush’s disapproval, meanwhile, is at an all-time record – 73 percent.

More:

Specifically among likely voters, this poll finds a 9-point advantage for the Democrats – 39 percent identify themselves as Democrats, 30 percent as Republicans, the rest as independents or something else. If that holds on Election Day it'll be a departure from turnout in presidential elections since 1984, in which Democrats have held at most a 4-point edge. But given the level of current discontent with Bush, and the overall trend in party identification the last five years, it could.

Obama now leads by 10 points among independents, 51-41 percent, and runs a competitive 51-46 percent against McCain among married women. White Catholics, however, favor McCain by 54-41 percent – worth watching, as they've backed the winner in each of the last eight presidential elections.

Obama makes it back, perhaps surprisingly, among non-evangelical white Protestants; normally a Republican group, they now tilt toward the Democrat – for the first time in ABC/Post polls this cycle – by 53-44 percent.

George Bush's disastrous job approval remains the albatross around McCain's neck. No one will vote for anyone associated with him. This joins CBS (22 approval) as the lowest ranking yet, putting Bush squarely in Nixon-Truman territory. The implications at the Congressional level are obvious.

Noite also, the D-R split in the ABC/WaPo poll (+9) matches R2K and Gallup and is significantly higher than Diageo/Hotline and Zogby. Rasmussen is now 39.3-33.