PA-03: Democratic challenger leads by 7

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/6-8. Likely voters. MoE 5%

Dahlkemper (D) 48
English (R-inc) 41

Excellent numbers here for Democratic challenger Kathy Dahlkemper, and a serious cause for concern for Republican incumbent Phil English.

Dahlkemper's lead outstrips Obama's in this district - the Democratic presidential nominee edes John McCain by two points in PA-03, 46% to 44%.

Dahlkemper was initially quoted low odds of knocking off English, as a newcomer to politics, but she has run a impressively strong campaign and put herself in position to defeat the incumbent. She leads among women 52% to 36%, providing her her margin of support...but she trails among men by only two points, 46% to 44%.

Her favorables are exceptional for a first-time candidate, at 49/28 fave/unfave. By comparison, her Republican opponent has 39% favorables, 45% unfavorable.

Dahlkemper looks to be in the catbird seat with three weeks to go.

On the web:
Kathy Dahlkemper for Congress

             PA-3 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Third Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 6 and October 8, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

                   SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  192 (48%)
Women                208 (52%)

Democrats            184 (46%)
Republicans          161 (40%)
Independents/Other    55 (14%)

18-29                 68 (17%)
30-44                125 (31%)
45-59                129 (32%)
60+                   78 (20%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Phil English? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 15%         24%         19%         26%         16%

MEN                 17%         28%         16%         24%         15%
WOMEN               13%         20%         22%         28%         17%

DEMOCRATS            9%         17%         28%         34%         12%
REPUBLICANS         23%         33%          9%         16%         19%
INDEPENDENTS        13%         22%         21%         27%         17%

18-29               13%         22%         21%         28%         16%
30-44               18%         26%         17%         24%         15%
45-59               14%         23%         19%         27%         17%
60+                 16%         25%         19%         25%         15%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kathy Dahlkemper? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 19%         30%         17%         11%         23%

MEN                 17%         28%         18%         12%         25%
WOMEN               21%         32%         16%         10%         21%

DEMOCRATS           27%         41%          8%          3%         21%
REPUBLICANS         10%         19%         28%         21%         22%
INDEPENDENTS        20%         31%         15%         10%         24%

18-29               22%         32%         15%          9%         22%
30-44               16%         27%         20%         13%         24%
45-59               20%         31%         16%         10%         23%
60+                 18%         30%         17%         12%         23%

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Kathy Dahlkemper the Democrat or Phil English the Republican?

                   DAHLKEMPER  ENGLISH     OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 48%         41%          2%          9%

MEN                 44%         46%          2%          8%
WOMEN               52%         36%          2%         10%

DEMOCRATS           83%          7%          2%          8%
REPUBLICANS          9%         80%          1%         10%
INDEPENDENTS        48%         40%          3%          9%

18-29               50%         39%          2%          9%
30-44               45%         44%          3%          8%
45-59               49%         40%          2%          9%
60+                 48%         40%          1%         11%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 46%         44%          3%          7%

MEN                 42%         49%          4%          5%
WOMEN               50%         39%          2%          9%

DEMOCRATS           80%          8%          3%          9%
REPUBLICANS          7%         85%          3%          5%
OTHER               47%         43%          4%          6%

18-29               49%         41%          3%          7%
30-44               42%         49%          4%          5%
45-59               47%         43%          4%          6%
60+                 46%         43%          1%         10%