North Dakota back in the game

Public Affairs Instite for the Fargo Forum.

McCain (R) 43
Obama (D) 45

Among voters who rank the economy as their top concern, 49 percent favor Obama, while 38 percent back McCain. The economy was far and away the most important national issue among voters, according to the poll, even though a majority regarded their own economic situation as "better off" or the "same" compared to a year ago.

Another troubling sign in the poll for McCain, who has styled himself as a maverick who is not a clone of President Bush: McCain has failed to solidify his hold on the GOP base in North Dakota, where he has the support of just 73 percent of voters identifying themselves as strong Republicans.

The state was neck-and-neck through July and August, until the Republican convention and Sarah Palin gave McCain a huge bump. (In this poll, 80 percent of respondents said Palin was not a factor in their choice.) A July R2K poll for Daily Kos had the race at 45-42 McCain over Obama. A 9/16-17 follow up had McCain up a comfortable 53-40.

This poll has convinced me to poll North Dakota again. Obama may have pulled out of the state to reinforce Minnesota, but he left infrastructure in the state, and by all reports, North Dakota Obama volunteers remain motivated and engaged.

Obviously, at this point, North Dakota's three electoral votes aren't crucial for victory. But winning the state would deliver two things: 1) humiliation to Republicans, losing a state that Bush won by 27 points in 2004, and 2) geographic reach. Here's how I think the election results would look like if the election was today:

There's nice geographic distribution except for two blocks of red -- the cluster of Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, Wyoming and the Dakotas, and the bigger cluster in the Deep South. If Obama can win Montana and/or South Dakota, as well as take Georgia, then he's got not just a bigger victory, but a broad, nationwide mandate for progressive change, with victories in every major region of the country.

And remember, we're no longer gunning to "win", we're gunning to decimate conservatism and deliver a clear progressive mandate for change.