Daily Kos: 10/13 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 52 , McCain 40 (and ABC/WaPo is 53-43)

10/13 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 52 , McCain 40 (and ABC/WaPo is 53-43)

by DemFromCT

Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 04:43:25 AM PDT

Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain . All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.

Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV Today Research 2000: 52 (53) 40 (40) 3 LV Reuters/Zogby: 48 (49) 44 (43) 2.8 LV Battleground: 51 (51) 43 (43) 3.5 LV last reported Friday Rasmussen: 50 (51) 45 (45) 2 LV

ABC-WaPo: 53 (50) 43 (46) 3 LV

Yesterday Diageo/Hotline: 49 (50) 41 (40) 3.4 LV Gallup: 50 (51) 43 (42) 2 RV

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +12 Fri, +13 Sat and +11 Sun. Post-debate polling shows no benefit for McCain. Obama's percentage has been at or above 50 since 9/29. +13 is Obama's largest three day lead in the R2K poll.

The new ABC/WaPo reads like a "closing the deal" affair:

Overall, Obama is leading 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and for the first time in the general-election campaign, voters gave the Democrat a clear edge on tax policy and providing strong leadership.

McCain has made little headway in his attempts to convince voters that Obama is too "risky" or too "liberal." Rather, recent strategic shifts may have hurt the Republican nominee, who now has higher negative ratings than his rival and is seen as mostly attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues that voters care about. Even McCain's supporters are now less enthusiastic about his candidacy, returning to levels not seen since before the Republican National Convention.

Registered voters by a 24-point margin, 59-35 percent, now say McCain is more focused on attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues. That’s grown from a roughly even 48-45 percent split on this question in late August.

There's far less criticism of the tone of Obama's campaign: Registered voters by 68-26 percent say he's mainly addressing the issues, not attacking his opponent, a slightly more positive rating than in August.

Candidate is mainly: Addressing Attacking the issues his opponent Now: McCain 35% 59 Obama 68 26

8/22: McCain 45% 48 Obama 64 29

Note the expected move byGallup to a likely voter (LV) model:

Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis between now and the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.

The second likely voter estimate is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents' current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between now and the election). According to this second likely voter model, Obama has a 51% to 45% lead over McCain.

The first LV model is 2004, and the second is 2008, in all probability. That's because of new voters, young voters, cell phone voters, etc. who may fail the first LV screen by not having voted before. This will probably cause a minute amount of 'tightening' in an otherwise stable race.

Here are some interesting Newsweek poll factoids compiled by pollingreport.com. A sampling:

58% of people who have seen McCain ads think they are "misleading or distorting". Only 36% said the same about Obama's ads.
47% of those surveyed think McCain shared their values
54% think he would "fit in well" with their local community
54% think he's honest and trustworthy
51% think he has the "right judgment and temperament" to make a good president
60% think he will stand for what's right, even if it's not politically popular and just 42% think he can bring the country together

In contrast:

59% think Obama shares their values
63% think he would fit in in their community
62% think he's honest and trustworthy (+8 over McCain)
66% think he has the right temperament and judgment (+14! over McCain)
62% think Obama can bring the country together (+20 over McCain)

A recent Gallup commentary answers why we are not talking about Bob Barr:

A recent Gallup Poll in which four third-party candidates were explicitly listed for voters along with the two major-party candidates found only minimal support for any candidate other than John McCain or Barack Obama.

For a good review of the Bradley effect, the Reverse Bradley effect, and other things to wring your hands over until the day after the election, see this NY Times piece by Kate Zernike.

Whatever its causes, the Bradley gap seems to be disappearing.

Richard Dunham at the Houston Chronicle summarizes every polling chestnut and bromide (in a helpful way - good to have it in one place.)

In every election since the Nixon presidency, Americans have chosen the candidate they feel is more likable. After the second presidential debate, an Oct. 7 CNN poll found that viewers found Obama more likable, 65 percent to 28 percent.
According to a Democracy Corps poll released Friday, 46 percent of Americans say there are "just too many questions (about Obama) to take a chance on him as president." In the closing weeks of the campaign, McCain will try to nudge that number up past 50 percent.
Four years ago, Republicans rode a wave of enthusiasm for George W. Bush and a lack of Democratic excitement about John Kerry into a 3 percentage point win. But the GOP enthusiasm edge seems to have evaporated. A Diageo/Hotline poll released Friday found that 70 percent of Democrats enthusiastically support Obama; 49 percent of Republicans eagerly back McCain.