A new poll from Quinnipiac University Polling Institute shows incumbent Senator Arlen Specter with a 15 point lead over conservative challenger U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey. But how big really is Specter's lead?
At first glance, the poll seems to have a lot of good news for Specter:
"Fifty-two percent of 615 likely Republican voters surveyed statewide support Specter in the April 27 primary, compared to 37 percent for Toomey. Eleven percent remain undecided in the race that marks the strongest primary threat to a sitting senator this year."
However, at the bottom of the article is some very interesting information:
"43 percent of voters mirror Toomey's central campaign charge - that Specter is too liberal for Republican voters - another 41 percent believe the senator's politics are "about right," the poll shows. Five percent believe Specter is too conservative, and 12 percent don't know."
-snip-
"39 percent of voters surveyed said they still don't know enough about Toomey to have an opinion of him, compared to 24 percent who view him favorably and 12 percent who view him unfavorably. Specter, meanwhile, has a 39 percent favorable rating while 24 percent of voters view him unfavorably."
There are still three weeks before the primary. Toomey and his allies will be blanketing the airwaves and working the ground game to make sure all of his supporters come out. I think at least 15-20% of Specter's support is based on name recognition alone. As more and more Republican voters learn about Toomey, his support will continue to rise. Other polls show Toomey's supporters are much more firm and more likely to turn out. I hold to my prediction: Toomey will unseat Specter. Full details of the poll can be found here.