10/21 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 50, McCain 42

Update [2008-10-21 12:12:47 by DemFromCT]:: Nate wrote up a tracking poll primer covering the eight available trackers. It includes sample size, time of publication (thank you!) and quirks as well as Nate's opinion of the trackers. Recommended.

Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama leading McCain 50-42. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.

                 Obama      McCain    MoE +/-   RV/LV
Today
Research 2000:  50 (50)    42 (42)    3         LV
Reuters/Zogby:  50 (50)    42 (44)    2.8       LV
Diageo/Hotline: 47 (47)    41 (42)    3.4       LV
Rasmussen:      50 (50)    46 (46)    2         LV
Battleground:   48 (49)    47 (45)    3.5       LV  Poll goes back to 10/14 and to 10/20
Gallup:         52 (52)    41 (41)    2         RV  See also the LV I and LV II numbers
IBD/TIPP:       47 (47)    41 (41)    3.3       LV  alternate link
ABC/WaPo:       53 (53)    44 (44)    3         LV

Pew:            52 (50)    38 (40)    2.5       LV  

Yesterday
CNN:            51 (53)    46 (45)    3.5       LV  Note: O 53 (56)  M 43 (42)  RV
D-Corps:        49 (50)    44 (40)    3         LV

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +7 Sat, +8 Sun and +9 Mon. Today's polling will not completely reflect Colin Powell's endorsement (or the less important but still politically potent announcement of Obama's 150 million Sep. fundraiser) but reflective data on that is included for today's poll.

Added from Zogby on early voting:

Obama leads by 21 points among those who have already voted, and also maintains a large lead among those who have registered to vote just in the last six months. He leads by two points among men and by 13 among women. He also leads in all but one age demographic - those aged 55-69 - where McCain has a scant one-point edge.

Obama and McCain now have equal party support in the R2K poll.

Obama is holding on to independents.

We posted last evening on the CBS/NY Times poll that revisited likely voters after the debates.

Here's more:

As voters have gotten to know Senator Barack Obama, they have warmed up to him, with more than half, 53 percent, now saying they have a favorable impression of him and 33 percent saying they have an unfavorable view. But as voters have gotten to know Senator John McCain, they have not warmed, with only 36 percent of voters saying they view him favorably while 45 percent view him unfavorably.

You will recall our highlighting Sarah Palin's poor fav/unfav (- 17 currently) :

[my bolding] In contrast, favorable opinion of Mr. McCain remained stable, and unfavorable opinion rose to 45 percent now from 35 percent in September. Mrs. Palin’s negatives are up, to 41 percent now from 29 percent in September.

Mr. Obama’s favorability is the highest for a presidential candidate running for a first term in the last 28 years of Times/CBS polls. Mrs. Palin’s negative rating is the highest for a vice-presidential candidate as measured by The Times and CBS News. Even Dan Quayle, with whom Mrs. Palin is often compared because of her age and inexperience on the national scene, was not viewed as negatively in the 1988 campaign.

The print media gets it.

"Even though I am a Democrat, there was a strong possibility I would have voted for McCain," said Yolanda Grande, 77, a Democrat from Blairstown, N.J. "What pushed me over the line was McCain’s choice of vice president. I just don’t think she is qualified to step in if anything happened to him."

Republicans, conservatives and cable TV will need to come to grips with how bad a choice Palin was. She's no more popular than she is qualified. So when you hear them say otherwise, review the data (Andrea Mitchell just schooled Joe Scarborough on the topic, commenting that the NBC poll is in the field and will report in the next day or two .)