Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/23-25 results)
Diaz-Balart (R) 46 (45)
Garcia (D) 43 (41)
Early voters (12 percent of sample)
Diaz-Balart (R) 46
Garcia (D) 52
Both candidates are bringing their parties home. The big difference -- and the one that should propel Joe Garcia to victory -- is independents. Last month, Diaz-Balart won them 42-38. Now, they support Garcia 41-42, which means that they are breaking toward him as they make up their mind (as is usually the case against incumbents, which is why it's important to keep them under 50 percent). Throw in the big Obama ground game, the HUGE undecided numbers among African Americans (29 percent), and the early voting numbers being stashed in the bank, and things look quite good indeed.
McCain beats Obama in the district 53-39, which is close to Bush's 56-44 magin in 2004. However, among early voters, Obama leads 55-41. Again, that early vote is coming in huge. The latest early voting numbers from FL-25 support the poll's early voting numbers (which have a large MoE due to the small sample size):
And look at the voter registration gains the past two years:
PARTY NOV 2006 REP 129,197 39.50%
DEM 111,207 34%
OTHER 86,667 26.50%
TOTAL 327,071
PARTY TODAY REP 137,913 35.65%
DEM 134,549 35.62%
OTHER 105,241 27.86%
TOTAL 377,703
What was a 5.5-point GOP edge is now virtually a dead heat, something this poll's likely voter screen isn't picking up. If they turn out, we're in particularly good shape.
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Twenty-fifth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 20 and October 22, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
WHITE 47% 42% 1% 10%
HISPANIC 49% 42% 1% 8%
BLACK 6% 65% - 29%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
