FL-21: Neck and neck, but early voting looms large

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-23. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Diaz-Balart (R) 45
Martinez (D) 44

Early voting (17 percent of sample)

Diaz-Balart (R) 42
Martinez (D) 55

Damn -- this isn't just about the toplines, which have Martinez well-positioned to take this thing (with Rep. Diaz-Balart well-under 50 percent). Look at those early voting numbers -- Martinez is banking a nice cushion of votes and amassing a nice advantage heading into Election Day. And this is a rapidly changing district. Check out the voter registration numbers from two years ago, compared to today:

Party        Nov-06
REP        129,302  42.44%
DEM        101,156  33.20%
Other       70,927  23.28%

Total 304,609

Party        Today
REP        132,531  38.80%
DEM        121,988  35.70%
OTHER       86,767  25.40%

Total: 341,286

What was a 9-point Republican district is now a 3-point district.

Obama has a decent lead in the toplines, and a huge lead in the early voting, in a district Bush won 57-43 in 2004:

McCain (R) 45
Obama (D) 50

Early voting

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 55

Raul Martinez will pick up this seat, and Obama will win the district on his way to winning the entire state. Here's the district (click on the little "+" sign to zoom in this tiny sliver of a distict), while crosstabs are below the fold.

On the web:
Raul Martinez for Congress

FL-21 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Eighteenth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 20 and October 23, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  194 (48%)
Women                206 (52%)

Democrats            168 (42%)
Republicans          156 (39%)
Independents/Other    76 (19%)

18-29                 72 (18%)
30-44                116 (29%)
45-59                124 (31%)
60+                   88 (22%)

White                148 (37%)
Hispanic             204 (51%)
Black                 32 (8%)
Other                 16 (4%)

Voted                 68 (17%)
Not Voted            332 (83%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lincoln Diaz-Balart? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         35%         31%          6%         17%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 46%         37%         17%

MEN                 49%         35%         16%
WOMEN               43%         39%         18%

DEMOCRATS           24%         59%         17%
REPUBLICANS         72%         12%         16%
INDEPENDENTS        42%         41%         17%

18-29               42%         41%         17%
30-44               47%         36%         17%
45-59               44%         39%         17%
60+                 51%         33%         16%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Raul Martinez? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         33%         29%          7%         20%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 44%         36%         20%

MEN                 41%         40%         19%
WOMEN               47%         32%         21%

DEMOCRATS           62%         18%         20%
REPUBLICANS         24%         57%         19%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         34%         21%

18-29               48%         32%         20%
30-44               42%         38%         20%
45-59               46%         33%         21%
60+                 40%         41%         19%

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Raul Martinez the Democrat or Lincoln Diaz-Balart the Republican?

                   DIAZ-BALART MARTINEZ    OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 45%         44%          1%         10%

VOTED               42%         55%         3%
NOT VOTED           46%         42%          1%

MEN                 48%         43%          1%          8%
WOMEN               42%         45%          1%         12%

DEMOCRATS           10%         81%         -            9%
REPUBLICANS         83%          5%          1%         11%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         43%          2%         11%

18-29               40%         49%          1%         10%
30-44               47%         41%          1%         11%
45-59               42%         47%          1%         10%
60+                 51%         39%         -           10%

WHITE               42%         45%          1%         12%
HISPANIC            56%         35%          1%          8%
BLACK                7%         84%         -            9%
OTHER               21%         71%          1%          7%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 50%         45%          3%          2%

VOTED               55%         42%         3%
NOT VOTED           49%         46%          3%

MEN                 47%         49%          3%          1%
WOMEN               53%         41%          3%          3%

DEMOCRATS           85%         10%          2%          3%
REPUBLICANS         13%         83%          3%          1%
OTHER               52%         44%          3%          1%

18-29               55%         41%          3%          1%
30-44               48%         47%          3%          2%
45-59               52%         42%          3%          3%
60+                 45%         51%          2%          2%