OH-02: Mean Jean in the crosshairs

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/30-10/1. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Schmidt (R) 46
Wulsin (D) 39

This district is a sort of personal obsession of mine. Remember, this race was the coming-out party for the netroots when in 2005, ignored by the political and media establishments, we propelled Iraq War Vet Paul Hackett to within inches of winning this seat.

This was a key case study in the then-controversial book Crashing the Gate -- the notion that Democrats could compete in any district not by running as Republican lite, but by running as real Democrats. And Hackett was a real Democrat. This was a district Bush had won 64-36 in 2004. DC Democrats didn't just ignore it as a lost cause, but rolled their eyes at his anti-war position, one held long before it was fashionable to be anti-war. And you could almost hear them groan when Hackett answered a question about gay marriage as such:

Gay marriage—who the hell cares?  If you're gay you're gay—more power to you. What you want is to be treated fairly by the law and any American who doesn't think that should be the case is, frankly, un-American.

Yet by the last week of the race, it was clear we had a real dogfight and the national parties engaged. The NRCC ended up dumping over a million dollars in attack ads to rescue a seat that should've been an easy hold. And when Hackett ended up losing by just slightly over three percent, us netrooters were vindicated -- a real-world example of how our brand of Democrat -- unapologetic and aggressive -- could compete anywhere.

In the three years since, Mean Jean Schmidt has consistently embarrassed herself and her district with her particular brand of wingnuttery. And she continues to have a tenuous hold on the district. Democrat Vic Wulsin came within inches of knocking out Mean Jean, losing by only 1.26% in 2006. And Wulsin is back to finish the job.

This is another great poll for our team -- Schmidt is well under 50 percent and is having trouble once again consolidating Republican support. She's just not that popular in her party. She currently edges out Wulsin among independents 44-42 and among women  42-41. Turning those numbers around will be key to closing out the deal, but she's well-positioned to do so.

And remember how this was a 64-36 Bush district? Check out the presidential numbers:

McCain (R) 52
Obama (D) 41

This is a Cincinnati-area district, one of the most conservative regions in the state. In fact, the district itself is the second most Republican district in all of Ohio, and Ohio has some seriously wingnutty districts. Yet despite having lost it by 28 points in 2004, the Democratic nominee is only 11 points behind this year. With numbers like that, it'll be tough for McCain to win Ohio.

Update: I forgot to link to Vic Wulsin's website. Here it is.

OH-2 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Second Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 30 and October 1, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  193 (48%)
Women                207 (52%)

Democrats            124 (31%)
Republicans          171 (43%)
Independents/Other   105 (26%)

18-29                 71 (18%)
30-44                129 (32%)
45-59                116 (29%)
60+                   84 (21%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jean Schmidt? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 10%         31%         28%         15%         16%

MEN                 12%         33%         26%         14%         15%
WOMEN                8%         29%         30%         16%         17%

DEMOCRATS            5%         18%         40%         22%         15%
REPUBLICANS         17%         44%         15%          8%         16%
INDEPENDENTS         8%         31%         29%         15%         17%

18-29                7%         27%         32%         17%         17%
30-44               12%         33%         26%         14%         15%
45-59                9%         30%         29%         17%         15%
60+                 12%         34%         25%         12%         17%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Victoria Wulsin? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 10%         31%         32%         10%         17%

MEN                  9%         30%         34%         11%         16%
WOMEN               11%         32%         30%          9%         18%

DEMOCRATS           15%         41%         18%          5%         21%
REPUBLICANS          5%         20%         46%         16%         13%
INDEPENDENTS        11%         32%         32%          8%         17%

18-29               13%         35%         28%          7%         17%
30-44                9%         28%         35%         12%         16%
45-59               11%         32%         30%          9%         18%
60+                  7%         28%         36%         12%         17%

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Victoria Wulsin the Democrat or Jean Schmidt the Republican?

                   SCHMIDT     WULSIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 46%         39%          7%          8%

MEN                 50%         37%          8%          5%
WOMEN               42%         41%          6%         11%

DEMOCRATS            6%         82%          5%          7%
REPUBLICANS         77%          5%          7%         11%
OTHER               44%         42%          9%          5%

18-29               42%         42%          6%         10%
30-44               49%         37%          8%          6%
45-59               43%         40%          7%         10%
60+                 50%         37%          7%          6%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 52%         41%          3%          4%

MEN                 55%         40%          3%          2%
WOMEN               49%         42%          3%          6%

DEMOCRATS           11%         85%          2%          2%
REPUBLICANS         83%          7%          3%          7%
OTHER               51%         43%          3%          3%

18-29               48%         45%          2%          5%
30-44               55%         39%          4%          2%
45-59               50%         42%          3%          5%
60+                 56%         38%          3%          3%