Senate Race Roundup

AK-Sen: Well, well, well...seems even Ted Stevens himself is acknowledging the fact that he might have to go to jail.

There's audio and everything. From a tapped conversation between Stevens and Veco CEO Bill Allen, the man who hooked Stevens up with all the sexy additions to his apartment that got him investigated by the Feds:

Stevens:  "If there's a violation of the elections law then that's a corporate violation."

Allen:  "Yeah."

Stevens:  "This thing shouldn't get your bind, little buddy."

Allen:  "Well it has man, all day."

Stevens:  "Well, well you gotta just stand back and say, what's gonna happen when it's all over, you gotta get a mental attitude that these guys can't really hurt us, you know, they're not gonna shoot us, its not Iraq, so what the hell.  Worse that's gonna happen to us is we round up a bunch of legal fees and might lose and might have to pay a fine, might have to serve a little time in jail."

Got that? "The feds can't really hurt us, they're not gonna shoot us...it's not like we're in Iraq, after all".

In other words, don't worry a bit about breaking federal laws. What are they gonna do, throw us in jail?

Well, Sen. Stevens, be careful what you wish for.

ME-Sen: This race had been almost written off by most prognosticators, and while it still ranks at the back end of the 12 races generally perceived as most competitive, recent polling shows late movement towards Democratic candidate Tom Allen.

First, the DSCC's internal polling shows an eight-point lead, with incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins below 50%.

Benenson Strategy Group for the DSCC. 9/30-10/2. Likely voters. MoE 4%.

Collins (R) 49
Allen (D) 41  

Allen had been making slow, but steady, progress in polling for several months, but seemed to have maxed out in the low 40s, while Collins settled in around 50%, and frequently well above. In fact, the recent movement had favored Collins; this is an indicator that perhaps the race is not completely lost yet.

Rasmussen has relatively similar numbers out, though theirs show Collins at 53%, obviously a significant difference.

Rasmussen. 10/2. Likely voters. MoE 4%. (9/17 numbers)

Collins (R) 53 (55)
Allen (D) 43 (42)  

Some tightening, but possibly just statistical noise. Allen needs to get incredibly lucky over the last month to come close to winning, and he needs a major Obama landslide in the state. Out of the races currently gaining major national attention, this is easily the least likely to flip. to the Democrats. Still, at least it looks like an 8-10 point race, and not a 13-15 point race.

The DSCC has a new ad against Collins:

KY-Sen: Mitch McConnell's pollster is worried about losing.

Saturday's edition of The Washington Post had this little nugget about the economy in a story under the headline "GOP Strategists Whisper Fears of Greater Losses in November":

"The crisis has affected the entire ticket," said Jan van Lohuizen, a Republican consultant who handled polling for President Bush's re-election campaign. "The worse the state's economy, the greater the impact."

Why should you care?

The Post doesn't mention it, but van Lohuizen isn't just Bush's former pollster. He's also the longtime pollster for U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell.

Yep, the GOP is nervous everywhere this year, from Alabama to Wyoming.

Democrat Bruce Lunsford's campaign has released an excellent new ad hitting McConnell for exploiting veterans in his own ads:

NH-Sen: Big lead posted for Jeanne Shaheen, from SUSA:

SurveyUSA. 10/4-5. Likely voters. MoE 3.9%. (October 2007 numbers)

Shaheen (D) 48 (53)
Sununu (R) 40 (42)  

That's a bigger lead than most polling outfits show, but only by a couple points. Shaheen's average lead looks to be about five or six points at the moment.

It ain't over till it's over - especially in New Hampshire - but Shaheen has been winning this one since Day One, and she's still winning.

The campaign has released a very cool new web video as well:

"Washington is broken...and John Sununu broke it". Love that line.

NC-Sen: Democrat Kay Hagan continues to pick up steam:

Public Policy Polling. 10/4-5. Likely voters. MoE 2.8%. (9/27-28 numbers)

Hagan (D) 49 (46)
Dole (R) 40 (38)
Cole (R) 5 (6)  

Too good to be true? Maybe. Obama leads McCain 50-44 in North Carolina in the same poll.

Nevertheless, Dole has been bleeding support, and Hagan climbing rapidly. Dole's average numbers are now below 40%...just abysmal numbers for an incumbent a month before the election. If anyone is favored here, it is Hagan.

OR-Sen: Shorter Gordon Smith: "OK, I may have lied a little. But only a little, not a whole lot!"

Sen. Gordon Smith’s (R-Ore.) campaign said Monday that he incorrectly claimed to have visited every county in the state once a year as a senator.

The Democratic Party of Oregon called Smith on the claim Monday, and Smith’s campaign admitted the senator’s mistake soon after. Smith is being challenged by state House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) in one of the top races in the country.

Smith said at a press conference last week: "Mr. Merkley is challenging me to go to all of Oregon’s counties once a year. Well, I do that."

When the Democratic Party of Oregon asked to see Smith’s Senate schedules to verify the claim, Smith’s campaign admitted the senator was wrong.

Smith likes to boast that he visits every county every year, because Ron Wyden gets a lot of praise for doing just that.

Unfortunately, Smith has a bit of a truth issue.

Here's Democrat Jeff Merkley's newest ad: