IL-10: Kirk (R) campaign freaks out over R2K poll

On Sunday, we ran a Research 2000 poll of the IL-10 race, showing incumbent Republican Mark Kirk with a small 44-38 lead over Democratic challenger Dan Seals.

Today, the Kirk campaign has reacted violently to the poll.

The ultra left-wing Web site Daily Kos commissioned a poll by Research 2000, which was conducted in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District from 9/30-10/1.  The survey was flawed on three levels.  First, the survey over-sampled voters age 18-29 while under-sampling voters 60+.  Second, the survey over-sampled Democrats and Independents while under-sampling Republicans.  Third, the survey was intentionally conducted on the Jewish High Holy Day of Rosh HaShanah that would exclude observant Jewish Democratic voters who lean more toward Kirk than average Democrats.

Skewed Age Sample:  According to the database of actual registered voters, only 16 percent of voters are aged 18-29, while 30 percent are over age 60.  The Research 2000 poll filled sample quotas differently, showing 19 percent of those surveyed between the ages of 18-29 and only 18 percent of voters over age 60.  Mark Kirk has always done better among older voters.  Skewing the poll by age skews it toward Seals.

So far, so fine. If they want to argue over sample composition, that's their right. We include all that data to be 100 percent transparent.

And yeah, every Republican campaign that doesn't like the results of these polls will point out that we're scary "ultra left wing" liberals blah blah blah, but fact of the matter is that Research 2000 is a respected non-partisan pollster used by newspapers like the St. Louis Post Dispatch and the Reno Gazette.

But the Kirk campaign, obviously feeling the heat, go way beyond quibbling over sample composition or taking cheap (and irrelevant) shots at Daily Kos:

Excluding Kirk-Leaning Jewish Voters:  It is no surprise that DailyKos, which has come under attack by Democrats like Harold Ford Jr. and Lanny Davis for anti-Israel and anti-Semitic content, chose to conduct its poll on the Jewish High Holy Day of Rosh HaShanah.

So we're now anti-semitic. Seriously, are they freaked out much?

The timing of the poll was mentioned in our post announcing the poll, but unlike the hyperventilating Kirk campaign, we argue that the timing depressed Democratic-leaning voters that would support Seals, rather than Kirk. While Kirk may have some Jewish support, that community is still Democratic leaning and will deliver a majority of its support to the Democrat this November. Arguing that excluding some Jewish voters is actually an anti-semitic ploy to depress Kirk's numbers is laughable. And desperate.

But let's thank the Kirk campaign for 1) betraying their insecurities. No campaign goes nuclear on a poll they consider to be an outlier; and 2) giving the poll higher visibility. These things have a habit of falling through the media cracks. Thanks to their outsized freakout, they've created the sort of conflict that will ensure a higher profile for the results.

They are freaked out, that much is clear. Throw some anvils at Kirk and let's help Seals close the deal this November. The districts voters, regardless of age, sex, religion, or race, deserve capable representation, not the kind of "leadership" that brought us the Iraq War and the financial system's collapse.