OH-01: Driehaus (D) leads tight race
Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 09:47:42 AM PST
OH-01
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/30-10/01. Likely voters. MoE 5%
Driehaus (D) 46
Chabot (R) 44
Wow. Those are terrific numbers for Democrat Steve Driehaus in this Cincinnati swing district.
Incumbent Republican Steve Chabot is as slick as they come - he's fended off several tough challenges before, including a 52-48 victory in 2006 over highly regarded Democrat John Cranley. We won't be able to count on this one until all the votes are counted. But Steve Driehaus is exactly where he wants to be at the moment. It's no worse than a deadlock, and the incumbent is solidly below 50%. SurveyUSA had the numbers flipped; 46% for Chabot, 44% for Driehaus.
Driehaus likely benefits from a large black population within the district - nearly 30% of the population - energized for Barack Obama. Obama's numbers in the district are outstanding; he leads John McCain 52% to 39%.
By comparison, Bush defeated Kerry here, 50% to 49%, and beat Gore 51% to 46. So Obama's performance here is especially impressive.
On the web:
Steve Driehaus for Congress
Race tracker wiki: OH-01
OH-1 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the First Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 30 and October 1, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 188 (47%)
Women 212 (53%)
Democrats 152 (38%)
Republicans 119 (30%)
Independents/Other 129 (32%)
White 268 (67%)
Black 119 (30%)
Other 13 (3%)
18-29 72 (18%)
30-44 132 (33%)
45-59 127 (32%)
60+ 69 (17%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Steve Chabot? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 31% 34% 10% 14%
MEN 12% 34% 32% 9% 13%
WOMEN 10% 27% 36% 11% 15%
DEMOCRATS 6% 18% 47% 14% 15%
REPUBLICANS 18% 45% 18% 6% 13%
INDEPENDENTS 10% 29% 36% 10% 15%
18-29 6% 27% 38% 13% 16%
30-44 13% 34% 32% 9% 12%
45-59 10% 29% 35% 11% 15%
60+ 14% 34% 31% 8% 13%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Steve Driehaus? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 33% 22% 9% 24%
MEN 11% 31% 25% 10% 23%
WOMEN 13% 35% 19% 8% 25%
DEMOCRATS 16% 43% 13% 4% 24%
REPUBLICANS 7% 21% 34% 15% 23%
INDEPENDENTS 12% 34% 19% 7% 28%
18-29 15% 37% 18% 7% 23%
30-44 11% 31% 23% 7% 28%
45-59 13% 35% 21% 11% 20%
60+ 10% 30% 24% 11% 25%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Steve Driehaus the Democrat or Steve Chabot the Republican?
DRIEHAUS CHABOT OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 46% 44% 4% 6%
MEN 42% 49% 5% 4%
WOMEN 50% 39% 3% 8%
DEMOCRATS 77% 13% 3% 7%
REPUBLICANS 5% 84% 4% 7%
OTHER 48% 43% 5% 4%
WHITE 35% 55% 6% 4%
BLACK 69% 20% - 11%
OTHER 66% 25% - 9%
18-29 51% 40% 4% 5%
30-44 44% 48% 4% 4%
45-59 46% 41% 4% 9%
60+ 42% 48% 3% 7%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
OBAMA MCCAIN OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 53% 39% 3% 5%
MEN 48% 45% 4% 3%
WOMEN 58% 33% 2% 7%
DEMOCRATS 84% 8% 2% 6%
REPUBLICANS 12% 80% 3% 5%
OTHER 55% 38% 3% 4%
18-29 58% 35% 3% 4%
30-44 51% 42% 2% 4%
45-59 53% 37% 3% 7%
60+ 49% 43% 3% 5%
