10/7 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 52, McCain 41

Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain 52-41. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.

                 Obama      McCain    MoE +/-   RV/LV
Today
Research 2000:  52 (52)    41 (40)    3         LV
Yesterday
Rasmussen:      52 (51)    44 (44)    2         LV
Battleground:   50 (49)    43 (46)    3.5       LV
Diageo/Hotline: 47 (48)    41 (41)    3.2       LV  
Gallup:         50 (50)    42 (43)    2         RV

NBC/WSJ:        49 (48)    43 (46)    3.8       RV
CNN:            53 (51)    45 (47)    3.5       LV
D Corps (D):    48 (49)    45 (45)              LV
CBS:            48 (50)    45 (41)    3         LV

On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +13 Sat, +11 Sun and +9 Mon (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.)

Look at the range of Obama polls (47-53) and the McCain numbers (41-45) to get a feel for McCain hitting a ceiling. Gallup (referring to their own numbers):

Looked at broadly, Obama's percent of the vote has been within a very narrow range of 48% to 50% over the last ten days, and McCain's has been within an equally narrow range of 42% of 44% over the same time period. These results suggest that aside from normal sampling error, the underlying dynamics of the race have become quite stable, and underscore the degree to which there has been little meaningful change in the race in well over a week.

Both NBC/WSJ and CBS weighed in on the debates confirming, as we had pointed out, that Obama and Biden won. The polls also emphasize most people think Sarah Palin is not qualified to be President should something happen to McCain, the main role of the VP. That's important, because between that and her fav/unfav, Palin is a base favorite but not an effective attack dog for the rest of the population.

From CBS:

Palin's unfavorable rating of 32 percent is significantly higher, however, than Biden's 19 percent unfavorable rating. And on the key questions of whether each candidate is ready to be vice president, or, if necessary, president, majorities see only Biden as passing the test.

Seventy-five percent of registered voters say Biden is prepared to be vice president, and 65 percent say he could be an effective president; just 42 percent say Palin is prepared to be vice president and only 37 percent say she could be an effective president. Even Republicans are more likely than not to concede Biden could be an effective president.

As uncommitted voters did in a CBS News/Knowledge Networks poll conducted immediately after the debate, registered voters who watched the debate give the "win" to Biden, 50 percent to 31 percent.

From NBC/WSJ:

By a 21 point margin, 50%-29%, voters said the Democrats had the debate edge over rival Republican running mates John McCain and Sarah Palin, while 10% of respondents said the two tickets were equally as good and 4% said neither was good.  

Do you feel that (READ ITEM) is qualified to be president if the need arises, or is (he/she) NOT qualified to
be president?

From Diageo/Hotline:

When asked who they thought won the debate, 47% of likely voters said they thought Joe Biden won, 28% said they thought Sarah Palin won, and 20% said the debate was, essentially, a tie.

As a result, among those voters who watched the debate, 40% say it made them more likely to vote for Obama-Biden, 39% said it made them more likely to vote for McCain-Palin, and 19% say they don't know.

The media overestimation of the dwindling GOP base is going to be one of the stories of this election. I know that spoils the media narrative, but the public has made up its mind about her. The size of the Republican base crowds she draws is irrelevant. As Daniel Patrick Moynihan used to say, "Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but not their own facts."

From a new ABC/WaPo Ohio poll:

Nearly four in 10 moderates in the poll said they were less apt to vote for McCain because of the Palin pick, double the proportion drawn to him as a result. By contrast, Biden attracts three times as many moderates to Obama as he pushes away.

Sarah Palin remains an unserious choice who is not, according to the voters, qualified to be a heartbeat away from a 72 year old cranky old man with uncertain health issues. She is one of the reasons McCain is losing this race, along with cranky and erratic "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" candidate at the top of the ticket (the one who "pals around" with Phil Gramm.)

Let's see if the pundits do any better interpreting tonight's debate, including recognition of the standing of the people pushing the attack.