NV-02: Heller in some danger, McCain doomed in Nevada

Research 2000 conducted a recent poll for the Reno Gazette-Journal. The results ought to send a chill down the spin of Nevada Republicans.

First, the results from the Second District House race, where Republican incumbent Dean Heller squares off for the second time against Democratic challenger Jill Derby.

Research 2000. 10/3-5. Likely voters. MoE 5% (8/18-20 numbers)

Heller (R) 48 (47)
Derby (D) 41 (42)

The numbers are essentially unchanged from August, when Heller led by five points. He defeated Derby by five points in 2006, and this poll suggests he is still not safe; his numbers are below 50% less than one month before the election, in one of the more conservative districts (R+8.2) in the nation.

But if this poll is not great for Heller, it is far worse for John McCain. From the Gazette-Journal article, check out this golden nugget (emphasis mine):

On an interesting side note, Heller's numbers are much better in CD2 than John McCain's. An indication, perhaps, that the Heller campaign is taking its ground game more seriously than the top of the ticket.

Whoa.

John McCain cannot win Nevada without a big, big margin in District 2. It is simply impossible.

Bush won the state by just three points in 2000 - 51% to 48% - and he did so by racking up a 16-point margin in NV-02. His margin of victory in NV-02 was 20 points in 2000, when he also won the state by the slim margin of three points. The Las Vegas-based First District is as Democratic as the Second is Republican, and the Third is a swing district that leans slightly Democratic.

McCain cannot win the state of Nevada without winning NV-02 by at least 15 points. Yet according to Research 2000, his margin is...two points.

The poll revealed a number of troubling trends for McCain, including an increasing number of voters who view him unfavorably and a virtual tie in the most Republican parts of the state.

In Washoe County, where Democrats have cut deeply into the Republican lead in registration, McCain leads by one point. In the 2nd Congressional District, historically a staunchly Republican district, McCain leads by two points.

The poll shows Obama with a seven-point lead overall in Nevada, 50% to 43%.

Barring a stunning turnaround, Obama is going to win Nevada, and it doesn't look to be close.