MN-Sen: Update, and big numbers coming in tonight

MN-Publius gives us two new important bits of information:

Coleman “well knows” that these tallies change, because in his 2002 race the unofficial tally on election day gave him 8,920 votes more than the final total after canvass did.  Did Coleman kick and scream and threaten to take his ball and go home then?  No, he won so he actually complied with the law...  In fact, the election day totals almost always vary immensely from the final, official results.  Klobuchar gained 2,854 votes, Pawlenty lost 1,375, and Swanson gained an amazing 23,059!  The tallies not changing would be the unusual scenario.  Of course Coleman knows this, it’s just that in this case it’s beneficial for him to pretend this is an anomaly.

Remember, with Coleman's advantage currently at 206 votes, history bodes ill for him.

Which brings me to the point that will surely have Coleman and his surrogates feigning outrage.  Guess which County’s Canvassing Board hasn’t reported yet?  That’s right, Hennepin County — it’s supposed to report today.  This makes it completely possible that by the end of the day today, the unofficial tally will be +Franken.

Hennepin County is home to Minneapolis:

It's so small on the map that it's hard to see it glowing -- it's the little spec of blue about five counties up from the bottom, third from the state's eastern border, and houses about 23 percent of the state's voters.

While Coleman demanded that Franken concede and halt the state's automatic recount in order to save it $90,000, don't expect Coleman to do the same if Franken ends up leading once the vote is certified and final. Either way, a recount should go forward. The people of Minnesota deserve to be represented by the candidate they elected.

(Certification will happen by November 19th, with the recount hopefully finished by December 19th. So it looks like we still have a ways to go before we can crown a victor in our own electoral prediction contest.)

Update: Great stuff -- with graphs! -- in this diary by bitwise.