CT-Sen: Hatin' Joe in Connecticut

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/11-13. Likely voters. MoE 4% (6/30-7/2 results)

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Lieberman is doing as U.S. senator?

Approve 36 (45)
Disapprove 61 (43)

If the 2012 election for U.S. Senate were held today would you to reelect Joe Lieberman would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Lieberman?

Reelect 35
Consider Someone Else 18
Replace 48

Brutal. It seems that the people of Connecticut don't like the Republican version of Lieberman, the one that trashed Democrats on the campaign trail with John McCain, the one that spoke at the RNC convention, the one that failed to hold the Bush Administration accountable in Congress, and the one that pretended Katrina never happened.

He's already in trouble with his constituents. But look what happens if Lieberman follows through on his threats and caucuses with Republicans:

If Joe Lieberman loses his committee chairmanship at Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs and switches his allegiance to the Republican Party would you that make you more likely reelect Lieberman more likely to consider voting for another candidate or more likely to vote to replace Lieberman?

Reelect 31
Consider Someone Else 15
Replace 52

And those numbers look a lot worse with Democrats and Independents, since they are propped up by happy Republicans. (Full crosstabs below the fold.)

So Lieberman can threaten all he wants to caucus with Republicans if he doesn't get everything he wants. Fact is, he's in shaky electoral territory, and it would only get worse if he decided to become a Republican.

Call his bluff. Give him another committee chairmanship in an area where his ideology matches up with the Democratic Party. He won't leave the Democratic caucus. It would be career suicide.

No one likes Joe except for Republicans, yet there are the Senate Dems, once again ready to capitulate. Apparently, old habits die hard.

But maybe they'll prove us wrong and do the right thing.

Update: Oh, and the people of Connecticut are still suffering buyer's remorse:

If you could vote again for U.S. Senate would you vote for Ned Lamont theDemocrat Alan Schlesinger the Republican or Joe Lieberman an Independent?

Lieberman (I) 34 (36)
Lamont (D) 59 (51)
Schlesinger (R) 3 (7)

CONNECTICUT POLL RESULTS – NOVEMBER 2008
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Connecticut Poll was conducted from November 11 through November 13, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURE:

Men                  282 (47%)
Women                318 (53%)

Democrats            251 (42%)
Republicans          115 (19%)
Independents/Other   234 (39%)

18-29                114 (19%)
30-44                204 (34%)
45-59                174 (29%)
60+                  108 (18%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Lieberman? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not)

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  7%         28%         36%         27%          2%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 35%         63%          2%

MEN                 40%         59%          1%
WOMEN               30%         67%          3%

DEMOCRATS           21%         77%          2%
REPUBLICANS         67%         29%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        34%         65%          1%

18-29               31%         66%          3%
30-44               35%         64%          1%
45-59               36%         61%          3%
60+                 39%         59%          2%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Lieberman is doing as U.S. senator?

                   APPROVE     DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE        

ALL                 36%         61%          3%

MEN                 41%         57%          2%
WOMEN               31%         65%          4%

DEMOCRATS           22%         76%          2%
REPUBLICANS         69%         27%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        35%         61%          4%

18-29               32%         65%          3%
30-44               36%         62%          2%
45-59               36%         59%          5%
60+                 41%         56%          3%

QUESTION: If the 2012 election for U.S. Senate were held today would you to reelect Joe Lieberman would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Lieberman?

                   REELECT     CONSIDER    REPLACE     NOT SURE        

ALL                 35%         14%         48%          3%

MEN                 39%         18%         41%          2%
WOMEN               31%         10%         55%          4%

DEMOCRATS           20%         11%         67%          2%
REPUBLICANS         68%         17%         10%          5%
INDEPENDENTS        35%         15%         46%          4%

18-29               31%         12%         55%          2%
30-44               35%         14%         49%          2%
45-59               35%         15%         46%          4%
60+                 40%         16%         42%          2%

QUESTION: For whom did you vote for in the 2006 race for U.S. Senate Ned Lamont the Democrat Alan Schlesinger the Republican or Joe Lieberman an Independent?

                   LIEBERMAN   LAMONT      SCHLESINGER

ALL                 49%         41%         10%

MEN                 53%         38%          9%
WOMEN               45%         44%         11%

DEMOCRATS           35%         61%          4%
REPUBLICANS         77%          6%         17%
INDEPENDENTS        50%         37%         13%

18-29               40%         51%          9%
30-44               45%         46%          9%
45-59               54%         35%         11%
60+                 57%         32%         11%

QUESTION: If you could vote again for U.S. Senate would you vote for Ned Lamont theDemocrat Alan Schlesinger the Republican or Joe Lieberman an Independent?

                   LAMONT      LIEBERMAN   SCHLESINGER NOT SURE        

ALL                 59%         34%          3%          4%

MEN                 53%         41%          3%          3%
WOMEN               65%         27%          3%          5%

DEMOCRATS           82%         17%          1%         -
REPUBLICANS          6%         73%          9%         12%
INDEPENDENTS        61%         33%          2%          4%

18-29               69%         21%          1%          9%
30-44               64%         29%          3%          4%
45-59               51%         42%          4%          3%
60+                 50%         44%          4%          2%

QUESTION: If Joe Lieberman loses his committee chairmanship at Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs and switches his allegiance to the Republican Party would you that make you more likely reelect Lieberman more likely to consider voting for another candidate or more likely to vote to replace Lieberman?

                   REELECT     CONSIDER    REPLACE     NOT SURE        

ALL                 31%         15%         52%          2%

MEN                 36%         19%         44%          1%
WOMEN               28%         11%         58%          3%

DEMOCRATS           14%         14%         71%          1%
REPUBLICANS         71%         14%          9%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        29%         17%         53%          1%

18-29               27%         13%         59%          1%
30-44               31%         15%         53%          1%
45-59               31%         16%         50%          3%
60+                 35%         17%         45%          3%