NY-Sen: So, what happens if there's a vacancy?

No doubt you've all heard the hottest rumor coming out of Washington over the last week; that the top choice for Secretary of State in the Obama Administration is none other than Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

As of right now, that's still a rumor. No evidence that Obama is going to offer it, none that she'd take it. We'll wait and see. But that doesn't mean we don't get to speculate...

Leaving aside the merits of the selection (personally, I think she'd be an outstanding choice, but then, I've always liked her), the next question would be: if Clinton is offered the position and accepts it, who would be appointed as her successor?

What's interesting about such speculation now, as opposed to during Clinton's presidential campaign, is that the leading choice for a replacement during much of her campaign is now out of the running. That would be Governor David Paterson, who seemed a likely pick when he was Lieutenant Governor, but ascended to the governorship upon the resignation of Governor Eliot Spitzer.

So now that Paterson is out of the running, who might the new governor select to fill Clinton's shoes? A couple things to keep in mind:

• Paterson has never been elected governor, and though he is currently fairly popular in New York, he could face a spirited Republican challenge. Rudy Giuliani is kicking the tires as we speak, and trails Paterson in polling by six points as of now. Michael Bloomberg is out, but theoretically another wealthy liberal Republican could step up. As such, Paterson will probably ultimately do what's best for his own reelection, and pick someone to shore up support among a particular constituency.

• Hillary Rodham Clinton is the first female Senator in New York history. Paterson will be under some pressure to appoint a woman to fill her seat.

• New York has never had a black or Latino Senator.

• There will be some pressure to appoint a Senator from upstate. Both Paterson and senior Senator Chuck Schumer hail from New York City, and Clinton lives in Westchester County just north of the city.

• Schumer could be a major player in the negotiations, as Dick Durbin has been in Illinois. Schumer is arguably the most powerful politician in New York State, and as two-term DSCC chair, is the captain of Democratic Senate recruitment around the country. He will no doubt seek to be somewhat involved in the process within his own state. While Schumer and former Governor Spitzer had a frosty relationship, he will likely have more influence with the less combative Paterson.

So here are some of the names being kicked around:

Rep. Nydia Velazquez of Brooklyn. She's a Brooklyn native, like Schumer. However, she's a woman and a Latina, which would cater to two critical Paterson constituencies. Velazquez kills two birds with one stone like no other candidate.

In addition to being the second woman and the first Hispanic to represent New York in the Senate, she'd be the first Latina Senator from any state.

The New York Daily News reports that Velazquez is the current frontrunner. She's a perfectly solid vote, so she'd be a fine appointment from that perspective, and she'd help Paterson. The major drawback to Velazquez is that she might have some trouble holding the seat. It's not clear how well she'd run upstate.

Rep. Jerrold Nadler of Manhattan. Nadler wants the appointment badly - if anything, he may want it too badly. He'd be a great Senator if he got it, but a Nadler appointment doesn't do much politically. If anything, it might be dangerous to Paterson to appoint another white man from NYC to the Senate.

Rep. Brian Higgins of Buffalo. Higgins fits the bill as an upstater, and he's a generally solid vote. That said, he probably wouldn't set the world on fire as a Senator, and though he'd be better positioned than Velazquez for reelection, his appointment would lack the historic significance that appointing Velazquez would have. Higgins would be fine, but unexciting, and a backbencher.

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo has Washington experience from his term as HUD secretary during the Clinton administration, and a Cuomo appointment would eliminate a potential primary rival for Paterson in 2010 (although a Cuomo run against Paterson for Governor would be folly).

Rep. Steve Israel of Long Island. Israel wouldn't exactly solve the upstate problem, and he isn't a minority. That said, he's a pretty decent vote, his Blue Dog membership aside. He'd be about as generic an appointment as one could ask for.

Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown. He's the dark-horse pick here, but he's an exciting prospect for two reasons; he's African-American, and he's an upstater. Beyond those, he's a rising star in the state party, and would be a good vote in the Senate.

Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand of Columbia County. She's considered a major rising star in the party; she's young, intelligent, attractive, won an upset victory in 2006 and a convincing reelection this year.

She's a woman and an upstater, so she's a solid pick for those reasons. Only problem is her Blue Doggery, as well as the fact that she holds a seat which could go Republican in 2010. She'd be a sure thing for reelection, though.

Rep. Michael Arcuri of Oneida County. Arcuri was considered a rising star in the party until nearly blowing his 2008 reelection against no-name opponent Richard Hanna. This has taken some of the luster off of the Congressman.

If Hillary Clinton is appointed to the Senate Secretary of State, as the Guardian believes she will be, it should be an exciting time for New Yorkers.